I thought it was a good time to update a previous analysis of OL composition/strength over time. For this update I will add the two most recent years, lay out what this year looks like, and include more advanced metrics for OL quality developed by Football Outsiders for 2014-2018. I believe these metrics, while less traditional/straightforward than the rough metrics, may be more insightful for our purposes. IMHO Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love are talents that make yards per carry less than totally insightful in evaluating OL quality and @fborg81 has made a similar point about sacks oftentimes being as much a QB stat as an OL stat.
2009 (Drevno and Roman)
Rough metrics: 6th in yards per carry, 2nd in sacks allowed per game, 1st in tackles for loss allowed per game
Sixth year senior: #140 Allen Smith
Redshirt seniors: #613 Chris Marinelli, #252 Matt Kopa, #277 James McGillicuddy
Redshirt juniors: #414 Chase Beeler, #752 Andrew Phillips, #783 Bert McBride, #654 Derek Hall, NR Joe Dembesky
Redshirt sophomores: #569 Brad Hallick, #698 Tyler Mabry, #895 George Halamandaris, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt freshmen: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
True freshmen: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
2010 (Drevno and Roman)
Rough metrics: 16th in yards per carry, 2nd in sacks allowed per game, 13th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Sixth year senior: #277 James McGillicuddy
Redshirt seniors: #414 Chase Beeler, #752 Andrew Phillips, #654 Derek Hall
Redshirt juniors: #569 Brad Hallick, #698 Tyler Mabry, #895 George Halamandaris, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt sophomores: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt freshmen: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
True freshmen: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
2011 (Bloomgren and Crook)
Rough metrics: 13th in yards per carry, 7th in sacks allowed per game, and 1st in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #698 Tyler Mabry, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt juniors: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt sophomores: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt freshmen: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
True freshmen: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
2012 (Bloomgren and Crook)
Rough metrics: 53rd in yards per carry, 34th in sacks allowed per game, and 24th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt juniors: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt sophomores: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
Redshirt freshmen: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True freshmen: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett, #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
2013 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 29th in yards per carry, 11th in sacks allowed per game, and 7th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt juniors: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
Redshirt sophomores: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True sophomores: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt freshmen: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
True freshmen: #628 Thomas Oser, #897 David Bright
2014 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 61st in yards per carry, 42nd in sacks allowed per game, and 13th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 59th in Adjusted Line Yards, 59th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: None
Redshirt juniors: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True juniors: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt sophomores: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt freshman: #628 Thomas Oser, #897 David Bright
True freshmen: #82 Casey Tucker, #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
2015 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 20th in yards per carry, 31st in sacks allowed per game, and 9th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 41st in Adjusted Line Yards, 62nd in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: #187 Brendon Austin
True seniors: #11 Kyle Murphy, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt juniors: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt sophomore: #897 David Bright
True sophomore: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt freshmen: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
True freshmen: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
2016 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 28th in yards per carry, 100th in sacks allowed per game, and 53rd in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 48th in Adjusted Line Yards, 125th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt senior: #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt junior: #897 David Bright
True junior: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt sophomores: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt freshmen: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
True freshmen: #193 Clark Yarbrough, #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #921 Nate Herbig, #1147 Dylan Powell
2017 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 6th in yards per carry, 15th in sacks allowed per game, 35th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 74th in Adjusted Line Yards, 17th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt senior: #897 David Bright
True senior: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt juniors: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt sophomores: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
True sophomore: #921 Nate Herbig
Redshirt freshmen: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True freshmen: #5 Foster Sarell, #9 Walker Little, #651 Drew Dalman
2018 (Carberry)
Rough metrics: 112th in yards per carry, 44th in sacks allowed per game, 56th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 114th in Adjusted Line Yards, 32nd in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt juniors: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin
True junior: #921 Nate Herbig
Redshirt sophomores: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True sophomores: #5 Foster Sarell, #9 Walker Little
Redshirt freshman: #651 Drew Dalman
True freshman: #528 Trey Stratford
2019 (Carberry)
Rough metrics: TBD
Advanced metrics: TBD
Redshirt seniors: None
Redshirt juniors: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True junior: #9 Walker Little
Redshirt sophomore (if he wants to get a medical redshirt): #5 Foster Sarell
Redshirt sophomore: #651 Drew Dalman
Redshirt freshman: #528 Trey Stratford
True freshmen: #125 Branson Bragg, #470 Walter Rouse, #559 Barrett Miller, #697 Jake Hornibrook, #1141 Drake Nugent
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Some observations:
* 12 scholarship OL on this year's roster breaks last year's ignominious record for fewest scholarship OL on a Harbaugh-Shaw era roster. 2018 and 2011 had 13. 2018 was a weak OL year. 2011 was decidedly not, although it had five fourth or fifth year linemen, including DeCastro, Martin, and Schwartzstein. This year has three and Hamilton, Hattis, and Powell is a far cry from that 2011 trio (not a knock on them, every fourth year class in Stanford history has been a far cry from that 2011 group).
* 2019 joins 2014 as the only years in which we haven't had at least one fifth year lineman. 2014 was not a particularly strong OL year.
* The only other years in this span when we have had as few as three fourth or fifth year linemen were 2012, 2014, and 2016. Those years would suggest somewhat measured expectations for the 2019 line.
* The three best offensive lines of the Shaw era were the 2013, 2015, and 2017. All three relied on old men strength, especially 2013 and 2015 (the two best lines of the Shaw era), which each had six fourth or fifth year players.
The bottom line is that I don't think there is anything in Shaw's history that should lead us to think the 2019 offensive line will be particularly good. Our hope has to be that Carberry is a great coach and we don't have to rely on the same structural features of our personnel as in the past. In addition to that fervent hope, I am already lighting candles pleading that Hamilton, Hattis, Powell, Sarell, and Dalman all return for next year. I think that should be a very good line, and the large 2019 and 2020 OL classes will make the 2020 OL room much deeper and more competitive than the 2019 group. Of course, we now have reason to be nervous in this day and age about players returning for fifth years, so there's no guarantee this goes the way I want.
2009 (Drevno and Roman)
Rough metrics: 6th in yards per carry, 2nd in sacks allowed per game, 1st in tackles for loss allowed per game
Sixth year senior: #140 Allen Smith
Redshirt seniors: #613 Chris Marinelli, #252 Matt Kopa, #277 James McGillicuddy
Redshirt juniors: #414 Chase Beeler, #752 Andrew Phillips, #783 Bert McBride, #654 Derek Hall, NR Joe Dembesky
Redshirt sophomores: #569 Brad Hallick, #698 Tyler Mabry, #895 George Halamandaris, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt freshmen: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
True freshmen: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
2010 (Drevno and Roman)
Rough metrics: 16th in yards per carry, 2nd in sacks allowed per game, 13th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Sixth year senior: #277 James McGillicuddy
Redshirt seniors: #414 Chase Beeler, #752 Andrew Phillips, #654 Derek Hall
Redshirt juniors: #569 Brad Hallick, #698 Tyler Mabry, #895 George Halamandaris, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt sophomores: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt freshmen: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
True freshmen: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
2011 (Bloomgren and Crook)
Rough metrics: 13th in yards per carry, 7th in sacks allowed per game, and 1st in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #698 Tyler Mabry, #1153 Matt Bentler
Redshirt juniors: #299 David DeCastro, #445 Jonathan Martin, #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt sophomores: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt freshmen: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
True freshmen: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
2012 (Bloomgren and Crook)
Rough metrics: 53rd in yards per carry, 34th in sacks allowed per game, and 24th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #907 Sam Schwartzstein
Redshirt juniors: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt sophomores: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
Redshirt freshmen: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True freshmen: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett, #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
2013 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 29th in yards per carry, 11th in sacks allowed per game, and 7th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Redshirt seniors: #490 Khalil Wilkes, #524 Kevin Danser
Redshirt juniors: #382 Cole Underwood, #419 Dillon Bonnell, #535 David Yankey, #546 Cameron Fleming
Redshirt sophomores: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True sophomores: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt freshmen: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
True freshmen: #628 Thomas Oser, #897 David Bright
2014 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 61st in yards per carry, 42nd in sacks allowed per game, and 13th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 59th in Adjusted Line Yards, 59th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: None
Redshirt juniors: #187 Brendon Austin, #472 Kevin Reihner
True juniors: #11 Kyle Murphy, #30 Andrus Peat, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt sophomores: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt freshman: #628 Thomas Oser, #897 David Bright
True freshmen: #82 Casey Tucker, #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
2015 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 20th in yards per carry, 31st in sacks allowed per game, and 9th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 41st in Adjusted Line Yards, 62nd in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: #187 Brendon Austin
True seniors: #11 Kyle Murphy, #38 Joshua Garnett
Redshirt juniors: #268 Graham Shuler, #423 Nick Davidson, #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt sophomore: #897 David Bright
True sophomore: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt freshmen: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
True freshmen: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
2016 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 28th in yards per carry, 100th in sacks allowed per game, and 53rd in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 48th in Adjusted Line Yards, 125th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt senior: #1066 Johnny Caspers
Redshirt junior: #897 David Bright
True junior: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt sophomores: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt freshmen: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
True freshmen: #193 Clark Yarbrough, #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #921 Nate Herbig, #1147 Dylan Powell
2017 (Bloomgren)
Rough metrics: 6th in yards per carry, 15th in sacks allowed per game, 35th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 74th in Adjusted Line Yards, 17th in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt senior: #897 David Bright
True senior: #82 Casey Tucker
Redshirt juniors: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt sophomores: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin, #651 Jack Dreyer, #917 Austin Maihen
True sophomore: #921 Nate Herbig
Redshirt freshmen: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True freshmen: #5 Foster Sarell, #9 Walker Little, #651 Drew Dalman
2018 (Carberry)
Rough metrics: 112th in yards per carry, 44th in sacks allowed per game, 56th in tackles for loss allowed per game
Advanced metrics: 114th in Adjusted Line Yards, 32nd in Adjusted Sack Rate
Redshirt seniors: #326 Brandon Fanaika, #571 AT Hall, #726 Jesse Burkett
Redshirt juniors: #310 Nick Wilson, #515 Brian Chaffin
True junior: #921 Nate Herbig
Redshirt sophomores: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True sophomores: #5 Foster Sarell, #9 Walker Little
Redshirt freshman: #651 Drew Dalman
True freshman: #528 Trey Stratford
2019 (Carberry)
Rough metrics: TBD
Advanced metrics: TBD
Redshirt seniors: None
Redshirt juniors: #252 Devery Hamilton, #488 Henry Hattis, #1147 Dylan Powell
True junior: #9 Walker Little
Redshirt sophomore (if he wants to get a medical redshirt): #5 Foster Sarell
Redshirt sophomore: #651 Drew Dalman
Redshirt freshman: #528 Trey Stratford
True freshmen: #125 Branson Bragg, #470 Walter Rouse, #559 Barrett Miller, #697 Jake Hornibrook, #1141 Drake Nugent
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some observations:
* 12 scholarship OL on this year's roster breaks last year's ignominious record for fewest scholarship OL on a Harbaugh-Shaw era roster. 2018 and 2011 had 13. 2018 was a weak OL year. 2011 was decidedly not, although it had five fourth or fifth year linemen, including DeCastro, Martin, and Schwartzstein. This year has three and Hamilton, Hattis, and Powell is a far cry from that 2011 trio (not a knock on them, every fourth year class in Stanford history has been a far cry from that 2011 group).
* 2019 joins 2014 as the only years in which we haven't had at least one fifth year lineman. 2014 was not a particularly strong OL year.
* The only other years in this span when we have had as few as three fourth or fifth year linemen were 2012, 2014, and 2016. Those years would suggest somewhat measured expectations for the 2019 line.
* The three best offensive lines of the Shaw era were the 2013, 2015, and 2017. All three relied on old men strength, especially 2013 and 2015 (the two best lines of the Shaw era), which each had six fourth or fifth year players.
The bottom line is that I don't think there is anything in Shaw's history that should lead us to think the 2019 offensive line will be particularly good. Our hope has to be that Carberry is a great coach and we don't have to rely on the same structural features of our personnel as in the past. In addition to that fervent hope, I am already lighting candles pleading that Hamilton, Hattis, Powell, Sarell, and Dalman all return for next year. I think that should be a very good line, and the large 2019 and 2020 OL classes will make the 2020 OL room much deeper and more competitive than the 2019 group. Of course, we now have reason to be nervous in this day and age about players returning for fifth years, so there's no guarantee this goes the way I want.
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