(In french cause Shaw might as well be French with his lack of killer instinct).
I present to you exhibit A, our win probability
Right up to that point, i.e. the end of the first half, our drives looked like:
TD
Fumble
TD
Punt
TD
TD
So, naturally, Shaw took his bald wrinkly head and started retracting it into his shell. At which point our drives looked like
FG
Punt.
After this the game was tied and the turtle desperately needed to get out of his shell and start running, but alas, his offensive muscles had started to cool off. Even if the little turtle could start running again he knew that a tied game with only a quarter left meant one thing: high variance in who the winner would be. The turtle's third quarter game management, while aimed at minimizing risk and maximizing win probability, had actually done the opposite and scary words like "chaotic", "risky", "unpredictable" were floating in the impending Halloween air. The turtle did not like such situations.
He franticly tried to scamper to safety, but alas, he had exposed himself to too much risk and his next two drives turned out to be
Turnover
TD
which, while perfectly probable according to how his first half offense had succeeded (e.g. TD 2/3 of the time), left him vulnerable. The evil cougar feasted on the turtle with glee.
My point: had Shaw not started the premature turtling in the 3rd, we win handily.
I present to you exhibit A, our win probability
Right up to that point, i.e. the end of the first half, our drives looked like:
TD
Fumble
TD
Punt
TD
TD
So, naturally, Shaw took his bald wrinkly head and started retracting it into his shell. At which point our drives looked like
FG
Punt.
After this the game was tied and the turtle desperately needed to get out of his shell and start running, but alas, his offensive muscles had started to cool off. Even if the little turtle could start running again he knew that a tied game with only a quarter left meant one thing: high variance in who the winner would be. The turtle's third quarter game management, while aimed at minimizing risk and maximizing win probability, had actually done the opposite and scary words like "chaotic", "risky", "unpredictable" were floating in the impending Halloween air. The turtle did not like such situations.
He franticly tried to scamper to safety, but alas, he had exposed himself to too much risk and his next two drives turned out to be
Turnover
TD
which, while perfectly probable according to how his first half offense had succeeded (e.g. TD 2/3 of the time), left him vulnerable. The evil cougar feasted on the turtle with glee.
My point: had Shaw not started the premature turtling in the 3rd, we win handily.
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