Going down a rabbit hole of obsession with "talent" this morning...
While I like recruiting rankings as (relatively) objective/comparable data points, in retrospect the best guide we have is probably what the market brings to bear, that is, what the NFL thinks. So let's take a look at all our classes in Harbaugh/Shaw eras....
(Parentheticals are Weighted Career Approximate Values; methodology is to include everybody listed as an NFL player/alum according to either Pro Football Reference or ESPN or who was drafted)
2008
First round pick: Luck (45), DeCastro (29)
2nd round pick: Martin (14)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Michael Thomas (5), Bademosi (4), Griff Whalen (4), Owusu (3), Howell (1), Chase Thomas (0)
2009
2nd round pick: Ertz (14), Trent Murphy (11)
4th round pick: Toilolo (2)
5th round pick: Taylor (3)
6th round pick: Gaffney (0)
7th round pick: Gardner (0)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Mauro (5), Hewitt (2), Skov (1)
2010
3rd round pick: Henry Anderson (4)
4th round pick: Fleming (7)
5th round pick: Parry (6), Reynolds (1), Yankey (0)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Tarpley (2)
Dallas Lloyd could still be an NFL guy from this class.
2011
2nd round pick: Richards (2)
3rd round pick: Montgomery (1)
5th round pick: Hogan (N/A)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Kevin Anderson (N/A)
James Vaughters has knocked around practice squads.
2012
1st round pick: Peat (6), Garnett (N/A)
3rd round pick: Carter (0)
4th round pick: Martinez (N/A)
6th round pick: Kyle Murphy (N/A)
Johnny Caspers, Zach Hoffpauir, Michael Rector, and Brandon Fanaika still could be NFL guys from this class. I guess you never know with Noor Davis, Barry J Sanders, Jordan Watkins, Luke Kaumatule, etc. but really doesn't seem remotely likely.
Aziz Shittu is on a practice squad.
2013
3rd round pick: Hooper (N/A)
Peter Kalambayi, David Bright, Kevin Palma, among others, could be NFL guys.
Seems like a relatively steady stream. Clearly 2008 and 2012 were best at the elite end, with 2009 the only one that rivals 2008 overall.
I think 2013 is going to look like a down year, not at all surprising given its size and lack of whales.
2014 starts to look really interesting, as one would expect given its quality coming in. McCaffrey, Thomas, Schultz, Holder, Phillips, and Burkett look like big-time NFL prospects to me. Wouldn't rule out Tucker, Chryst, Alfieri, Okereke, Alexander, Hall, Murphy, and Marx.
Too soon to really have a very informed opinion about 2015 or certainly 2016, but in 2015 Meeks, Reid, and Wilson seem like prospects to me and there are a number of other credible guys.
Thoughts?
While I like recruiting rankings as (relatively) objective/comparable data points, in retrospect the best guide we have is probably what the market brings to bear, that is, what the NFL thinks. So let's take a look at all our classes in Harbaugh/Shaw eras....
(Parentheticals are Weighted Career Approximate Values; methodology is to include everybody listed as an NFL player/alum according to either Pro Football Reference or ESPN or who was drafted)
2008
First round pick: Luck (45), DeCastro (29)
2nd round pick: Martin (14)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Michael Thomas (5), Bademosi (4), Griff Whalen (4), Owusu (3), Howell (1), Chase Thomas (0)
2009
2nd round pick: Ertz (14), Trent Murphy (11)
4th round pick: Toilolo (2)
5th round pick: Taylor (3)
6th round pick: Gaffney (0)
7th round pick: Gardner (0)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Mauro (5), Hewitt (2), Skov (1)
2010
3rd round pick: Henry Anderson (4)
4th round pick: Fleming (7)
5th round pick: Parry (6), Reynolds (1), Yankey (0)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Tarpley (2)
Dallas Lloyd could still be an NFL guy from this class.
2011
2nd round pick: Richards (2)
3rd round pick: Montgomery (1)
5th round pick: Hogan (N/A)
Undrafted but NFL impact: Kevin Anderson (N/A)
James Vaughters has knocked around practice squads.
2012
1st round pick: Peat (6), Garnett (N/A)
3rd round pick: Carter (0)
4th round pick: Martinez (N/A)
6th round pick: Kyle Murphy (N/A)
Johnny Caspers, Zach Hoffpauir, Michael Rector, and Brandon Fanaika still could be NFL guys from this class. I guess you never know with Noor Davis, Barry J Sanders, Jordan Watkins, Luke Kaumatule, etc. but really doesn't seem remotely likely.
Aziz Shittu is on a practice squad.
2013
3rd round pick: Hooper (N/A)
Peter Kalambayi, David Bright, Kevin Palma, among others, could be NFL guys.
Seems like a relatively steady stream. Clearly 2008 and 2012 were best at the elite end, with 2009 the only one that rivals 2008 overall.
I think 2013 is going to look like a down year, not at all surprising given its size and lack of whales.
2014 starts to look really interesting, as one would expect given its quality coming in. McCaffrey, Thomas, Schultz, Holder, Phillips, and Burkett look like big-time NFL prospects to me. Wouldn't rule out Tucker, Chryst, Alfieri, Okereke, Alexander, Hall, Murphy, and Marx.
Too soon to really have a very informed opinion about 2015 or certainly 2016, but in 2015 Meeks, Reid, and Wilson seem like prospects to me and there are a number of other credible guys.
Thoughts?
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