Let's look ahead to Oregon. For me the bottom line is that we catch a break in that we play both of the two best teams on our schedule at home and that this one is massively, comically overrated. If Stanford beats the #3 team in the nation that will be a huge story. But in actuality Oregon is probably not one of the ten best teams in the nation. Oregon's awesome win at Ohio State, which deserves a ton of credit, obscures for many that over the sweep of the season Oregon has looked only very good, not great. They do not have the elements of a playoff team except that they upset Ohio State and now have a super easy schedule that gives them a shot at running the table.
I'll lay out my basis for thinking Oregon is overrated below but underlying it all is an important insight: their 4-0 record and any stats accumulated in it are not as impressive as appears because their schedule is pathetic. Even counting Ohio State, Sagarin has Oregon's strength of schedule #96 in the country. Playing Fresno State, Stony Brook, and Arizona is a shameful degree of difficulty (not that it's Oregon's fault they play Arizona, but the fact is that doing so inflates any stats that come out of such a game). In contrast, Stanford has had the #9 strength of schedule. As such, everything that comes below needs to come with an upgrade in how you think about Stanford vis-a-vis the stats and a downgrade in how you think about Oregon vis-a-vis the stats.
With that context, let's look into how Oregon presents.
Offense
Oregon is #20 in the country in points per game but only #42 in yards per play. Consider that Stanford - despite the false start to the season of starting Jack West - is #38 in yards per play and rising in the ranks each week. Neither team has played great defenses (Fresno State arguably the best either team has played). I'd put these offenses in the same ballpark. Breaking down the constituent parts of Oregon's offense:
* Anthony Brown is the #42 QB in the nation according to Total QBR. He's roughly similar to what we faced against Kansas State and UCLA (not lost on me those were both losses). In pure passing, he's mediocre, way less dangerous than DTR and the UCLA receiving weapons.
* They are #26 in the country in yards per carry. Given our softness in run defense this looks like a scary matchup for us, as UCLA was. Like UCLA, they have a three-headed monster (including the QB) that can run effectively. Verdell and Dye are both quality backs. They are also good at avoiding negative plays, as Oregon is #20 in tackles for loss allowed. It's fair to wonder how we can stop Oregon's run game. IMHO, the UCLA game was one for us to build on in run defense and bend-don't-break effectiveness and we need to see more of that, or better, against Oregon.
* According to PFF grades, Oregon's greatest strength on offense is their interior offensive line. They've been playing at a very high level. The left tackle stinks at pass blocking (the second straight year that's been the case for Moore, so probably something we can trust as real) and the right tackle stinks at run blocking. We should try to dial up Herron, Reid, and well-timed corner or safety blitzes to take advantage of Moore. Conversely, our run defense will be facing some real men in the interior line for Oregon. To that point, continuing my theme that every freaking team gets to build their OL around fourth and fifth year players except Stanford, Oregon's starting line has three fifth year guys and a fourth year guy. This just isn't sustainable for us to have OL get to their fourth and fifth years as infrequently as has been the case they last three years.
* Oregon has been weirdly plagued by mediocre WR play for several years. They're good enough to do damage but really not scary. I'd say having multiple credible options is the calling card rather than having a dude who demands matchups. Definite step-down from Drake London, Kyle Phillips, and Greg Dulcich.
Defense
Oregon is #42 in points allowed per game and #74 in yards per play allowed (Stanford is #83). Oregon's defense may be even more of a bend-don't-break defense than ours. They're on the field a ton - 93 percent of teams play fewer defensive plays than Oregon - and give up a ton of first downs - 122nd in the nation in first downs allowed per game. In some ways this could be the cure for what ails us. Stanford's offense is good but because it hits the home runs, not because we can reliably move the chains. Facing a defense that can't stop other teams from moving the chains could be just what the doctor ordered. Breaking down the constituent parts of Oregon's defense:
* Oregon's got the #54 pass efficiency defense in the country and is #79 in yards per attempt allowed. Considering they've faced Ohio State and Fresno State I'd entertain an argument that this is a stat that accurately reflects Oregon's quality. It's slightly sobering that Oregon arguably has the best pass defense McKee has faced but I don't think it's good enough to scare him or us. Once they face him they'll hopefully join the other teams we've played in having crappy stats as a result. Indeed, stats like this - especially early in the season when they're particularly vulnerable to single game swings - are inextricably linked to the quality one faces. According to PFF grades, Kansas State, UCLA, USC, and Oregon are essentially indistinguishable in coverage (all between 62nd and 72nd in the nation). Bottom line is this is another chance to feast for McKee.....with a cautionary note below.
* Oregon's run defense appears to be in a similar range, #58 in yards per carry allowed (interestingly, Stanford is #58 in yards per carry). However, aside from Ohio State, Oregon has played poor running teams. Moreover, Stanford's two losses have come against top ten run defenses. On paper this has the potential of being an opportunity for Stanford's run game to get right. Whether it can do that without Bragg and potentially without Jones is another question. I am doubtful.
* Arguably the top player in America, the Million Dollar Crypto Man, is expected to play for Oregon. He's only played 30 snaps this year. The optimistic read for us is that Thibodeaux just can't stay on the field. The pessimistic read is we're going to face a challenge Oregon's other opponents haven't really had to deal with. It's probably prudent to expect we're going to get his best shot. This is terrifying for Rouse and Hinton in equal measure, as throughout his career Thibodeaux has played equal amounts on either side of the line. Given Hinton's worst-in-America performance this year, this should be a major factor in the game. We did a good job neutralizing Agude last week (albeit arguably at the expense of some vulnerability to other pressure) so I'm not giving up, but McKee needs to buckle up.
* Even putting Thibodeaux aside, Oregon's defensive line is a very scary matchup for a Stanford offensive line that has been a disappointment and will now be without its best player. Brandon Dorlus is playing at a high level no matter how you slice it, Keyon Ware-Hudson is by production, and Popo Aumavae is according to PFF. To paint a picture for you a little bit, among all Pac-12 defensive interior or edge defenders (DL + OLB for defenses like ours, DL for many teams) with 30+ snaps this year, Oregon has the #2 (Thibodeaux), #5 (Dorlus), #8 (Aumavae), and #9 (Brandon Buckner) guys in the conference. This is troubling, and it doesn't even count LB Noah Sewell. If you look at front seven broadly to also include LBs (ILBs in our defense), Oregon has six of the top 25 in the conference compared to one for Stanford. This is the principal difference between these two teams.
* The defensive backs are Oregon's principal weakness on either side of the ball. Among the top 8 DBs, PFF assesses five to be outright liabilities. This overstates the situation, though, since Oregon has had the luxury of garbage time the last two weeks. Oregon has a few very good DBs. Verone McKinley and Bennett Williams have been interception machines (more on that below). Still, two starting DBs, Steve Stephens and DJ James, are liabilities.
Rather than edit this down to character limits I'll do special teams/miscellaneous/overall thoughts in the next post....
I'll lay out my basis for thinking Oregon is overrated below but underlying it all is an important insight: their 4-0 record and any stats accumulated in it are not as impressive as appears because their schedule is pathetic. Even counting Ohio State, Sagarin has Oregon's strength of schedule #96 in the country. Playing Fresno State, Stony Brook, and Arizona is a shameful degree of difficulty (not that it's Oregon's fault they play Arizona, but the fact is that doing so inflates any stats that come out of such a game). In contrast, Stanford has had the #9 strength of schedule. As such, everything that comes below needs to come with an upgrade in how you think about Stanford vis-a-vis the stats and a downgrade in how you think about Oregon vis-a-vis the stats.
With that context, let's look into how Oregon presents.
Offense
Oregon is #20 in the country in points per game but only #42 in yards per play. Consider that Stanford - despite the false start to the season of starting Jack West - is #38 in yards per play and rising in the ranks each week. Neither team has played great defenses (Fresno State arguably the best either team has played). I'd put these offenses in the same ballpark. Breaking down the constituent parts of Oregon's offense:
* Anthony Brown is the #42 QB in the nation according to Total QBR. He's roughly similar to what we faced against Kansas State and UCLA (not lost on me those were both losses). In pure passing, he's mediocre, way less dangerous than DTR and the UCLA receiving weapons.
* They are #26 in the country in yards per carry. Given our softness in run defense this looks like a scary matchup for us, as UCLA was. Like UCLA, they have a three-headed monster (including the QB) that can run effectively. Verdell and Dye are both quality backs. They are also good at avoiding negative plays, as Oregon is #20 in tackles for loss allowed. It's fair to wonder how we can stop Oregon's run game. IMHO, the UCLA game was one for us to build on in run defense and bend-don't-break effectiveness and we need to see more of that, or better, against Oregon.
* According to PFF grades, Oregon's greatest strength on offense is their interior offensive line. They've been playing at a very high level. The left tackle stinks at pass blocking (the second straight year that's been the case for Moore, so probably something we can trust as real) and the right tackle stinks at run blocking. We should try to dial up Herron, Reid, and well-timed corner or safety blitzes to take advantage of Moore. Conversely, our run defense will be facing some real men in the interior line for Oregon. To that point, continuing my theme that every freaking team gets to build their OL around fourth and fifth year players except Stanford, Oregon's starting line has three fifth year guys and a fourth year guy. This just isn't sustainable for us to have OL get to their fourth and fifth years as infrequently as has been the case they last three years.
* Oregon has been weirdly plagued by mediocre WR play for several years. They're good enough to do damage but really not scary. I'd say having multiple credible options is the calling card rather than having a dude who demands matchups. Definite step-down from Drake London, Kyle Phillips, and Greg Dulcich.
Defense
Oregon is #42 in points allowed per game and #74 in yards per play allowed (Stanford is #83). Oregon's defense may be even more of a bend-don't-break defense than ours. They're on the field a ton - 93 percent of teams play fewer defensive plays than Oregon - and give up a ton of first downs - 122nd in the nation in first downs allowed per game. In some ways this could be the cure for what ails us. Stanford's offense is good but because it hits the home runs, not because we can reliably move the chains. Facing a defense that can't stop other teams from moving the chains could be just what the doctor ordered. Breaking down the constituent parts of Oregon's defense:
* Oregon's got the #54 pass efficiency defense in the country and is #79 in yards per attempt allowed. Considering they've faced Ohio State and Fresno State I'd entertain an argument that this is a stat that accurately reflects Oregon's quality. It's slightly sobering that Oregon arguably has the best pass defense McKee has faced but I don't think it's good enough to scare him or us. Once they face him they'll hopefully join the other teams we've played in having crappy stats as a result. Indeed, stats like this - especially early in the season when they're particularly vulnerable to single game swings - are inextricably linked to the quality one faces. According to PFF grades, Kansas State, UCLA, USC, and Oregon are essentially indistinguishable in coverage (all between 62nd and 72nd in the nation). Bottom line is this is another chance to feast for McKee.....with a cautionary note below.
* Oregon's run defense appears to be in a similar range, #58 in yards per carry allowed (interestingly, Stanford is #58 in yards per carry). However, aside from Ohio State, Oregon has played poor running teams. Moreover, Stanford's two losses have come against top ten run defenses. On paper this has the potential of being an opportunity for Stanford's run game to get right. Whether it can do that without Bragg and potentially without Jones is another question. I am doubtful.
* Arguably the top player in America, the Million Dollar Crypto Man, is expected to play for Oregon. He's only played 30 snaps this year. The optimistic read for us is that Thibodeaux just can't stay on the field. The pessimistic read is we're going to face a challenge Oregon's other opponents haven't really had to deal with. It's probably prudent to expect we're going to get his best shot. This is terrifying for Rouse and Hinton in equal measure, as throughout his career Thibodeaux has played equal amounts on either side of the line. Given Hinton's worst-in-America performance this year, this should be a major factor in the game. We did a good job neutralizing Agude last week (albeit arguably at the expense of some vulnerability to other pressure) so I'm not giving up, but McKee needs to buckle up.
* Even putting Thibodeaux aside, Oregon's defensive line is a very scary matchup for a Stanford offensive line that has been a disappointment and will now be without its best player. Brandon Dorlus is playing at a high level no matter how you slice it, Keyon Ware-Hudson is by production, and Popo Aumavae is according to PFF. To paint a picture for you a little bit, among all Pac-12 defensive interior or edge defenders (DL + OLB for defenses like ours, DL for many teams) with 30+ snaps this year, Oregon has the #2 (Thibodeaux), #5 (Dorlus), #8 (Aumavae), and #9 (Brandon Buckner) guys in the conference. This is troubling, and it doesn't even count LB Noah Sewell. If you look at front seven broadly to also include LBs (ILBs in our defense), Oregon has six of the top 25 in the conference compared to one for Stanford. This is the principal difference between these two teams.
* The defensive backs are Oregon's principal weakness on either side of the ball. Among the top 8 DBs, PFF assesses five to be outright liabilities. This overstates the situation, though, since Oregon has had the luxury of garbage time the last two weeks. Oregon has a few very good DBs. Verone McKinley and Bennett Williams have been interception machines (more on that below). Still, two starting DBs, Steve Stephens and DJ James, are liabilities.
Rather than edit this down to character limits I'll do special teams/miscellaneous/overall thoughts in the next post....
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