The spread for the game this weekend is narrowing. My understanding is that movement reflects "professional" adjustment to the naive public perceptions. What do they know that we don't?
I've also noticed that the bookmakers and Sagarin ratings are very highly correlated. Has there ever been a study about the accuracy of the odds in prediction? I would imagine that, as a viable business model, the long run performance of the posted odds would be spot on, that is, over the long haul, hundreds of 11 point favorites would win by 11 points on average.
Is this well-known demonstrated somewhere? The expectation and distribution of the spread vs. outcome translates to various probabilities of winning, and I expect these conversions are based on a fairly straight-forward analysis.
I would also imagine that the variance in outcomes v. the spread depends on a number of other factors partially known in advance (like weather, like the offensive philosophy, etc.)
I've also noticed that the bookmakers and Sagarin ratings are very highly correlated. Has there ever been a study about the accuracy of the odds in prediction? I would imagine that, as a viable business model, the long run performance of the posted odds would be spot on, that is, over the long haul, hundreds of 11 point favorites would win by 11 points on average.
Is this well-known demonstrated somewhere? The expectation and distribution of the spread vs. outcome translates to various probabilities of winning, and I expect these conversions are based on a fairly straight-forward analysis.
I would also imagine that the variance in outcomes v. the spread depends on a number of other factors partially known in advance (like weather, like the offensive philosophy, etc.)
