We are currently Sagarin #100. Others may or may not find this interesting, but my mind started wandering tonight to what Power Five teams have done after a season under a new coach had a season like Taylor's first year. I thought I'd take a look at the track record of Power Five coaches who were in the 90-110 range their first year. This century that describes (in rough order of success):
2020 Florida State: #102 in Norvell's first season....#63 in Year 2, #16 in Year 3, #10 (undefeated/obviously irked by the lack of respect but I'm talking algorithm here) in Year 4
2017 Baylor: #97 in Rhule's first season....#62 in Year 2, #16 in Year 3
2012 Washington State: #104 in Leach's first season.....#40 in Year 2, #81 in Year 3, #53 in Year 4, #34 in Year 5, #28, in Year 6, #20 in Year 7, #46 in Year 8
2013 Kentucky: #104 in Stoops' first season....#49 in Year 2, #91 in Year 3, #65 in Year 4, #67 in Year 5, #26 in Year 6, #33 in Year 7, #47 in Year 8, #20 in Year 9, #35 in Year 10, and #41 in Year 11
2006 Northwestern: #93 in Fitzgerald's first season......#86 in Year 2, #44 in Year 3, #61 in Year 4, #71 in Year 5, #58 in Year 6, #21 in Year 7, #65 in Year 8, #66 in Year 9, #49 in Year 10, #35 in Year 11, #20 in Year 12, #32 in Year 13, #71 in Year 14, #15 in Year 15, #101 in Year 16, and #103 in Year 17
2019 Maryland: #97 in Locksley's first season.....#61 in Year 2, #58 in Year 3, #37 in Year 4, #35 in Year 5
2022 Virginia Tech: #94 in Pry's first season....#54 in Year 2
2016 Virginia: #107 in Mendenhall's first season.....#81 in Year 2, #43 in Year 3, #34 in Year 4, #57 in Year 5, #64 in Year 6
2005 Illinois: #96 in Zook's first season....#108 in Year 2, #30 in Year 3, #68 in Year 4, #94 in Year 5, #39 in Year 6, #55 in Year 7
2002 Vanderbilt: #96 in Johnson's first season....#105 in Year 2, #112 in Year 3, #67 in Year 4, #63 in Year 5, #54 in Year 6, #39 in Year 7, and #104 in Year 8
2011 Maryland: #104 in Edsall's first season....#101 in Year 2, #73 in Year 3, #50 in Year 4, #85 in Year 5
2006 Colorado: #94 in Hawkins' first season.....#56 in Year 2, #72 in Year 3, #91 in Year 4, and #68 in Year 5
2008 Michigan: #95 in Rodriguez's first season....#81 in Year 2, #60 in Year 3
2005 Ole Miss: #102 in Orgeron's first season....#74 in Year 2 and #80 in Year 3
2019 Georgia Tech: #107 in Collins' first season....#101 in Year, #96 in Year 3, #84 in Year 4
2002 Indiana: #98 in DiNardo's first season....#121 in Year 2 and #98 in Year 3
2004 Duke: #90 in Roof's first season...#133 in Year 2, #153 in Year 3, and #109 in Year 4
2012 Kansas: #98 in Weis' first season....#119 in Year 2 and #115 in Year 3
2007 Iowa State: #92 in Chizik's first season....#114 in Year 2
2018 Arkansas: #98 in Morris' first season....#117 in Year 2
2011 Colorado: #107 in Embree's first season....#156 in Year 2
(Fisch at Arizona, Smith at Oregon State, and Doeren at NC State are success stories not included above as their first years were actually worse than my parameters, but of course there are failure stories outside of the parameters too, like Robinson at Syracuse, Smith at Illinois, and Andersen at Oregon State)
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The median is Randy Edsall at Maryland and he's joined in the median group by Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt and Dan Hawkins at Colorado. In other words, making it five years and having a few respectable seasons but never being particularly good. [I'd note that when I looked at historical track records of rebuilding coaches there was about a 50/50 chance of getting somebody who eventually could have a good (8+ wins) season, so as a strictly empirical matter Taylor's first season at Stanford puts him on a typical trajectory worse than when we hired him.]
Of course, we hope Troy Taylor isn't average and has the goods to be in the top half of this list. Good coaches - Mike Norvell, Matt Rhule, Mike Leach, Mark Stoops, Mike Locksley (it's early days but Year 2 indicates Brent Pry may be good) - are able to get major leaps from Year 1 to Year 2. Pat Fitzgerald took until Year 3, but generally Year 2 saw major leaps for the coaches who have been able to overcome a Year 1 like Taylor had. I'm talking really major leaps - 35+ spots. If Stanford is the #65 team in the nation next year that will feel like major progress. Here's to hoping Taylor is a good coach in that mold.
All rebuilding programs hope their coach is in the good category. Time will tell. Across the whole data set, most did better in their second season than the first - 62 percent - but it's certainly nowhere close to a high enough percent one would view it as a certainty.
My gut tells me Taylor is in the Locksley-Pry-Mendenhall neighborhood of this typology. I don't see him falling below the Orgeron-Collins echelon. But again, time will tell. This story is still to be written. Hopefully our guy gives us reason to think of him in the upper echelons.
2020 Florida State: #102 in Norvell's first season....#63 in Year 2, #16 in Year 3, #10 (undefeated/obviously irked by the lack of respect but I'm talking algorithm here) in Year 4
2017 Baylor: #97 in Rhule's first season....#62 in Year 2, #16 in Year 3
2012 Washington State: #104 in Leach's first season.....#40 in Year 2, #81 in Year 3, #53 in Year 4, #34 in Year 5, #28, in Year 6, #20 in Year 7, #46 in Year 8
2013 Kentucky: #104 in Stoops' first season....#49 in Year 2, #91 in Year 3, #65 in Year 4, #67 in Year 5, #26 in Year 6, #33 in Year 7, #47 in Year 8, #20 in Year 9, #35 in Year 10, and #41 in Year 11
2006 Northwestern: #93 in Fitzgerald's first season......#86 in Year 2, #44 in Year 3, #61 in Year 4, #71 in Year 5, #58 in Year 6, #21 in Year 7, #65 in Year 8, #66 in Year 9, #49 in Year 10, #35 in Year 11, #20 in Year 12, #32 in Year 13, #71 in Year 14, #15 in Year 15, #101 in Year 16, and #103 in Year 17
2019 Maryland: #97 in Locksley's first season.....#61 in Year 2, #58 in Year 3, #37 in Year 4, #35 in Year 5
2022 Virginia Tech: #94 in Pry's first season....#54 in Year 2
2016 Virginia: #107 in Mendenhall's first season.....#81 in Year 2, #43 in Year 3, #34 in Year 4, #57 in Year 5, #64 in Year 6
2005 Illinois: #96 in Zook's first season....#108 in Year 2, #30 in Year 3, #68 in Year 4, #94 in Year 5, #39 in Year 6, #55 in Year 7
2002 Vanderbilt: #96 in Johnson's first season....#105 in Year 2, #112 in Year 3, #67 in Year 4, #63 in Year 5, #54 in Year 6, #39 in Year 7, and #104 in Year 8
2011 Maryland: #104 in Edsall's first season....#101 in Year 2, #73 in Year 3, #50 in Year 4, #85 in Year 5
2006 Colorado: #94 in Hawkins' first season.....#56 in Year 2, #72 in Year 3, #91 in Year 4, and #68 in Year 5
2008 Michigan: #95 in Rodriguez's first season....#81 in Year 2, #60 in Year 3
2005 Ole Miss: #102 in Orgeron's first season....#74 in Year 2 and #80 in Year 3
2019 Georgia Tech: #107 in Collins' first season....#101 in Year, #96 in Year 3, #84 in Year 4
2002 Indiana: #98 in DiNardo's first season....#121 in Year 2 and #98 in Year 3
2004 Duke: #90 in Roof's first season...#133 in Year 2, #153 in Year 3, and #109 in Year 4
2012 Kansas: #98 in Weis' first season....#119 in Year 2 and #115 in Year 3
2007 Iowa State: #92 in Chizik's first season....#114 in Year 2
2018 Arkansas: #98 in Morris' first season....#117 in Year 2
2011 Colorado: #107 in Embree's first season....#156 in Year 2
(Fisch at Arizona, Smith at Oregon State, and Doeren at NC State are success stories not included above as their first years were actually worse than my parameters, but of course there are failure stories outside of the parameters too, like Robinson at Syracuse, Smith at Illinois, and Andersen at Oregon State)
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The median is Randy Edsall at Maryland and he's joined in the median group by Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt and Dan Hawkins at Colorado. In other words, making it five years and having a few respectable seasons but never being particularly good. [I'd note that when I looked at historical track records of rebuilding coaches there was about a 50/50 chance of getting somebody who eventually could have a good (8+ wins) season, so as a strictly empirical matter Taylor's first season at Stanford puts him on a typical trajectory worse than when we hired him.]
Of course, we hope Troy Taylor isn't average and has the goods to be in the top half of this list. Good coaches - Mike Norvell, Matt Rhule, Mike Leach, Mark Stoops, Mike Locksley (it's early days but Year 2 indicates Brent Pry may be good) - are able to get major leaps from Year 1 to Year 2. Pat Fitzgerald took until Year 3, but generally Year 2 saw major leaps for the coaches who have been able to overcome a Year 1 like Taylor had. I'm talking really major leaps - 35+ spots. If Stanford is the #65 team in the nation next year that will feel like major progress. Here's to hoping Taylor is a good coach in that mold.
All rebuilding programs hope their coach is in the good category. Time will tell. Across the whole data set, most did better in their second season than the first - 62 percent - but it's certainly nowhere close to a high enough percent one would view it as a certainty.
My gut tells me Taylor is in the Locksley-Pry-Mendenhall neighborhood of this typology. I don't see him falling below the Orgeron-Collins echelon. But again, time will tell. This story is still to be written. Hopefully our guy gives us reason to think of him in the upper echelons.
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