After a very nice (desperately needed) win yesterday, I thought it would be worthwhile to take stock in where Stanford sits with ten regular season games remaining. I also wanted to point out that Oregon was a meager 1.5 point favorite yesterday - Vegas essentially had it as a toss up. I'm sure most of us would've picked the Ducks to win.
After losing two of the most winnable remaining games on the schedule and then beating Oregon (who doesn't appear to be any better than Arizona or Colorado fwiw), Stanford truly appears to be close to a toss up in all of their remaining games - home games against lesser teams and road games against conference favorites are the only contests that will likely have point spreads above five.
Here's my effort at handicapping the rest of the season:
@Utah 40% win probability
@Colorado 30%
ASU 65%
Zona 45%
@UW 50%
@WSU 60%
Utah 65%
Colorado 45%
@Oregon State 40%
@Oregon 35%
Expected record over final 10 games: 4.75 wins and 5.25 losses
A 5-5 finish would put Stanford at 10-8 in the conference and 21-10 overall. This is likely a five bid conference and Stanford should be squarely in the top five teams with that sort of resume. While my expectations are lowered from two weeks ago, I still think Stanford is more likely to sneak into the Big Dance - getting a split this coming week would certainly help - just split baby!
After losing two of the most winnable remaining games on the schedule and then beating Oregon (who doesn't appear to be any better than Arizona or Colorado fwiw), Stanford truly appears to be close to a toss up in all of their remaining games - home games against lesser teams and road games against conference favorites are the only contests that will likely have point spreads above five.
Here's my effort at handicapping the rest of the season:
@Utah 40% win probability
@Colorado 30%
ASU 65%
Zona 45%
@UW 50%
@WSU 60%
Utah 65%
Colorado 45%
@Oregon State 40%
@Oregon 35%
Expected record over final 10 games: 4.75 wins and 5.25 losses
A 5-5 finish would put Stanford at 10-8 in the conference and 21-10 overall. This is likely a five bid conference and Stanford should be squarely in the top five teams with that sort of resume. While my expectations are lowered from two weeks ago, I still think Stanford is more likely to sneak into the Big Dance - getting a split this coming week would certainly help - just split baby!
