I admitted in another thread my nagging concern that KJ Costello wasn't that good as a high school senior. Here are the stats I was referring to:
KJ Costello: 2347 yards passing, 60% completion, 18 TD, 9 INT, 97.5 rating
In an attempt to get some peace of mind, I went back and looked at good Pac-12 QBs and how they did their senior year of high school to see if there are recent examples of guys who had a senior slump but then became good college starting QBs. My method was to look at senior year stats, where available, for every QB who has been top five in the conference in passer rating in a given year:
Jake Browning: 5790 yards passing, 69% completion, 91 TD, 7 INT, 139.4 rating
Sam Darnold: 2985 yards passing, 68% completion, 39 TD, 8 INT, 127.2 rating
Luke Falk: 3618 yards passing, 59% completion, 36 TD, 11 INT, 91 rating
Davis Webb: 2722 yards passing, 61% completion, 23 TD, 7 INT, 99 rating
Manny Wilkins: N/A
Vernon Adams Jr.: 2901 yards passing, 65% completion, 27 TD, 9 INT, 125 rating
Kevin Hogan: N/A
Jared Goff: 3692 yards passing, 64% completion, 40 TD, 12 INT, 120 rating
Cody Kessler: 2831 yards passing, 70% completion, 36 TD, 2 INT, 144 rating
Anu Solomon: 2849 yards passing, 68% completion, 35 TD, 5 INT, 141 rating
Marcus Mariota: N/A
Brett Hundley: 2348 yards passing, 62% completion, 20 TD, 2 INT, 123 rating
Taylor Kelly: 2349 yards passing, 66% completion, 20 TD, 4 INT, 116 rating
Keith Price: 2260 yards passing, 72% completion, 24 TD, 6 INT, 136 rating
Matt Barkley: 2877 yards passing, 55% completion, 23 TD, 18 INT, 85 rating
Sean Mannion: 3521 yards passing, 61% completion, 27 TD, 12 INT, 97 rating
Andrew Luck: N/A
Darron Thomas: N/A
Nick Foles: N/A
Steven Threet: 1896 yards passing, 55% completion, 20 TD, 11 INT, 90 rating
This does give me a measure of peace of mind. I set an intentionally very high bar - being top five in passer rating in the Pac-12 in a given year is very impressive. I'd say being this good gives you about a 50/50 shot of one day being an NFL starting QB. Certainly more than half make the NFL. So it's an intentionally high bar to try to measure the level I think most here hope Costello can get to. It does seem a mediocre senior year of high school like Costello's does not at all rule out a trajectory that can eventually clear this high bar. In this data set of 14 for which MaxPreps had stats, five were similarly mediocre (Falk, Webb, Barkley, Mannion, Threet). Not super encouraging that a nine of the 14 were considerably better than Costello their senior years but this is enough for me not to get too skeptical until we can actually see him on the field in college.
P.S. Luck did not have MaxPreps stats available but I have the stats sans passer rating for him. Luck is actually Exhibit A for me for hope with Costello. Luck had a senior slump senior year of high school too - at least statistically - and it was remarkably similar to Costello's. In Luck's case: he threw for 2684 yards, 58% completion, 19 TD, 9 INT. May that only be the start of the comparisons to Costello!
KJ Costello: 2347 yards passing, 60% completion, 18 TD, 9 INT, 97.5 rating
In an attempt to get some peace of mind, I went back and looked at good Pac-12 QBs and how they did their senior year of high school to see if there are recent examples of guys who had a senior slump but then became good college starting QBs. My method was to look at senior year stats, where available, for every QB who has been top five in the conference in passer rating in a given year:
Jake Browning: 5790 yards passing, 69% completion, 91 TD, 7 INT, 139.4 rating
Sam Darnold: 2985 yards passing, 68% completion, 39 TD, 8 INT, 127.2 rating
Luke Falk: 3618 yards passing, 59% completion, 36 TD, 11 INT, 91 rating
Davis Webb: 2722 yards passing, 61% completion, 23 TD, 7 INT, 99 rating
Manny Wilkins: N/A
Vernon Adams Jr.: 2901 yards passing, 65% completion, 27 TD, 9 INT, 125 rating
Kevin Hogan: N/A
Jared Goff: 3692 yards passing, 64% completion, 40 TD, 12 INT, 120 rating
Cody Kessler: 2831 yards passing, 70% completion, 36 TD, 2 INT, 144 rating
Anu Solomon: 2849 yards passing, 68% completion, 35 TD, 5 INT, 141 rating
Marcus Mariota: N/A
Brett Hundley: 2348 yards passing, 62% completion, 20 TD, 2 INT, 123 rating
Taylor Kelly: 2349 yards passing, 66% completion, 20 TD, 4 INT, 116 rating
Keith Price: 2260 yards passing, 72% completion, 24 TD, 6 INT, 136 rating
Matt Barkley: 2877 yards passing, 55% completion, 23 TD, 18 INT, 85 rating
Sean Mannion: 3521 yards passing, 61% completion, 27 TD, 12 INT, 97 rating
Andrew Luck: N/A
Darron Thomas: N/A
Nick Foles: N/A
Steven Threet: 1896 yards passing, 55% completion, 20 TD, 11 INT, 90 rating
This does give me a measure of peace of mind. I set an intentionally very high bar - being top five in passer rating in the Pac-12 in a given year is very impressive. I'd say being this good gives you about a 50/50 shot of one day being an NFL starting QB. Certainly more than half make the NFL. So it's an intentionally high bar to try to measure the level I think most here hope Costello can get to. It does seem a mediocre senior year of high school like Costello's does not at all rule out a trajectory that can eventually clear this high bar. In this data set of 14 for which MaxPreps had stats, five were similarly mediocre (Falk, Webb, Barkley, Mannion, Threet). Not super encouraging that a nine of the 14 were considerably better than Costello their senior years but this is enough for me not to get too skeptical until we can actually see him on the field in college.
P.S. Luck did not have MaxPreps stats available but I have the stats sans passer rating for him. Luck is actually Exhibit A for me for hope with Costello. Luck had a senior slump senior year of high school too - at least statistically - and it was remarkably similar to Costello's. In Luck's case: he threw for 2684 yards, 58% completion, 19 TD, 9 INT. May that only be the start of the comparisons to Costello!
