ESPN’s ACC preview is out. Given the size of the conference it’s a long read but I think it’s probably one of the best resources out there for understanding the competitive landscape in our new conference. Chock full of insights. I don’t agree with everything - and the weirdness of highlighting Trevor Mayberry suggests there are some odd and/or not salient misreads throughout. But I think generally you’ll learn much more than you’ll be misled with this piece.
It was a bit eye-opening to me to see Connelly models us as having the #33 strength of schedule. I knew this year would be easier but if Connelly is right this is unquestionably one of the easiest schedules in Stanford history. Between that and his note that one can hope that sheer continuity leads to improvement (and my point not raised in this article that 20+ months post-Shaw could be transformative), there’s a window of hope that we can have a fun season. His model gives us a 10.9 percent chance of a 6+ win season, which is crazy low for a power conference team (next lowest in ACC is 16.4 percent and five ACC teams have a 98+ percent chance, will be interesting to see how many teams nationally get pegged with odds as low as ours). It seems about right to me - six wins seems very optimistic for where we are - but it’s a high enough chance to hold out hope.
I think more likely is that we show more modest signs of growth and the offense in particular is actually a bit fun. I agree with Connelly that Taylor + Daniels + Ayomanor + OL continuity gives us a decent starting point.
Football getting closer!
It was a bit eye-opening to me to see Connelly models us as having the #33 strength of schedule. I knew this year would be easier but if Connelly is right this is unquestionably one of the easiest schedules in Stanford history. Between that and his note that one can hope that sheer continuity leads to improvement (and my point not raised in this article that 20+ months post-Shaw could be transformative), there’s a window of hope that we can have a fun season. His model gives us a 10.9 percent chance of a 6+ win season, which is crazy low for a power conference team (next lowest in ACC is 16.4 percent and five ACC teams have a 98+ percent chance, will be interesting to see how many teams nationally get pegged with odds as low as ours). It seems about right to me - six wins seems very optimistic for where we are - but it’s a high enough chance to hold out hope.
I think more likely is that we show more modest signs of growth and the offense in particular is actually a bit fun. I agree with Connelly that Taylor + Daniels + Ayomanor + OL continuity gives us a decent starting point.
Football getting closer!
