As I mentioned yesterday, today is the reveal for Bill Connelly's SP+ preseason rankings on ESPN. He has Stanford #68 in the country on the "strength" of being #57 on offense and #83 on defense. All three stabs have the ring of truthiness, or at least plausibility, to me. This would be a huge improvement over 2021 (#105) but still very much in the mediocre morass in college football. West Virginia, Washington State, and Cal are the comparable Power Five teams in Connelly's view. For past Stanford team comparisons (comparing to Sagarin rankings since that's more accessible than SP+), we're talking about teams like 1998 (3-8), 2003 (4-7), 2007 (4-8), and 2020 (4-2 in a weird pandemic year). Irrelevant mediocrity with a bowl unlikely.
Looking at the component parts of the SP+ ranking, #57 on offense really jumps out. For Connelly to think that a team with a whale QB, completely intact returning offensive line of former 4-stars and high 3-stars mostly in their fourth year, and numerous 4-star receivers is the #3 most returning offensive production in the nation and STILL won't crack the top 50 offenses is a resounding indictment of Shawfense. By all rights our offense should be top 25. That Connelly's take is arguably more reasonable than an expectation of a top 25 offense speaks volumes.
The expectation of a #83 defense may be a bit optimistic but is in the zone. When we're talking about 80-131 defenses we're talking about a lot of crap and it's kind of like arguing how many angels will fit on the head of a pin to try to parse exactly where in that range we'll fall.
For what it's worth, here are how Connelly sees the teams on Stanford's schedule plus the other two Pac-12 teams:
8) Notre Dame
14) Utah
23) BYU
31) Arizona State
32) Oregon
44) UCLA
46) Oregon State
61) Washington
64) USC
68) Stanford
70) Washington State
74) Cal
99) Arizona - Stanford doesn't play
102) Colorado - Stanford doesn't play
N/A) Colgate
Connelly goes to great pains to wash his hands of any prediction with regard to USC one way or the other, pointing out what a mystery they are given coaching and personnel turnover. He notes that 2021 was their worst season since 1961 by his lights and that the defensive turnover makes it hard to see how the defense stops sucking, but he also notes they won the national title in 1962 and there's much to be said about a program with USC's potential. Fully wait and see mode.
Playing two top 25 non-conference teams and missing the dregs of the Pac-12 due to the vagaries of Pac-12 scheduling, it's easy to see the excuses about the difficult schedule Shaw will muster. That shouldn't obscure the overall point that Connelly's numbers reveal the Pac-12 to be total garbage. He provides a separate numerical conference ranking that reveals the Pac-12 is closer to the American Athletic Conference than it is to the next worst Power Five conference (the Big 12). The Pac-12 can't really call itself a power conference anymore.
And therein, perhaps, lies a potential note of optimism: the Pac-12 North in particular is so awful that it's extremely easy to see a mediocre team lucking its way to a good bowl and a merely solid team having an outside path to a Rose Bowl, as the #28 1999 Stanford team mustered. I don't see a path for Stanford being that team in 2022, but for those who still believe in Shaw and the program's DNA you can see the glimmer of hope to shock the world in 2022.
As for me, I think it's more revealing that Connelly thinks Stanford will improve a whopping 37 points in his rankings and still probably not make a bowl. The hole we have to climb out of is very, very deep.
Looking at the component parts of the SP+ ranking, #57 on offense really jumps out. For Connelly to think that a team with a whale QB, completely intact returning offensive line of former 4-stars and high 3-stars mostly in their fourth year, and numerous 4-star receivers is the #3 most returning offensive production in the nation and STILL won't crack the top 50 offenses is a resounding indictment of Shawfense. By all rights our offense should be top 25. That Connelly's take is arguably more reasonable than an expectation of a top 25 offense speaks volumes.
The expectation of a #83 defense may be a bit optimistic but is in the zone. When we're talking about 80-131 defenses we're talking about a lot of crap and it's kind of like arguing how many angels will fit on the head of a pin to try to parse exactly where in that range we'll fall.
For what it's worth, here are how Connelly sees the teams on Stanford's schedule plus the other two Pac-12 teams:
8) Notre Dame
14) Utah
23) BYU
31) Arizona State
32) Oregon
44) UCLA
46) Oregon State
61) Washington
64) USC
68) Stanford
70) Washington State
74) Cal
99) Arizona - Stanford doesn't play
102) Colorado - Stanford doesn't play
N/A) Colgate
Connelly goes to great pains to wash his hands of any prediction with regard to USC one way or the other, pointing out what a mystery they are given coaching and personnel turnover. He notes that 2021 was their worst season since 1961 by his lights and that the defensive turnover makes it hard to see how the defense stops sucking, but he also notes they won the national title in 1962 and there's much to be said about a program with USC's potential. Fully wait and see mode.
Playing two top 25 non-conference teams and missing the dregs of the Pac-12 due to the vagaries of Pac-12 scheduling, it's easy to see the excuses about the difficult schedule Shaw will muster. That shouldn't obscure the overall point that Connelly's numbers reveal the Pac-12 to be total garbage. He provides a separate numerical conference ranking that reveals the Pac-12 is closer to the American Athletic Conference than it is to the next worst Power Five conference (the Big 12). The Pac-12 can't really call itself a power conference anymore.
And therein, perhaps, lies a potential note of optimism: the Pac-12 North in particular is so awful that it's extremely easy to see a mediocre team lucking its way to a good bowl and a merely solid team having an outside path to a Rose Bowl, as the #28 1999 Stanford team mustered. I don't see a path for Stanford being that team in 2022, but for those who still believe in Shaw and the program's DNA you can see the glimmer of hope to shock the world in 2022.
As for me, I think it's more revealing that Connelly thinks Stanford will improve a whopping 37 points in his rankings and still probably not make a bowl. The hole we have to climb out of is very, very deep.
