With a game coming up against an FCS opponent, there has been talk about Cal Poly's chances. Personally I don't think it's hubris to say Cal Poly has no chance. But I thought I'd see what the data show. Here are all the FCS teams to beat a power conference team this century ranked by Sagarin ranking with the FBS team they beat listed parenthetically:
17) 2013 North Dakota State (#23 Kansas State)
32) 2014 North Dakota State (#105 Iowa State)
37) 2011 North Dakota State (#88 Minnesota)
44) 2016 North Dakota State (#41 Iowa)
44) 2007 Appalachian State (#21 Michigan)
49) 2009 William & Mary (#73 Virginia)
50) 2004 New Hampshire (#94 Rutgers)
54) 2016 Eastern Washington (#34 Washington State)
60) 2009 Richmond (#78 Duke)
62) 2007 Northern Iowa (#92 Iowa State)
71) 2007 North Dakota State (#123 Minnesota)
79) 2013 Eastern Washington (#29 Oregon State)
82) 2002 Villanova (#158 Rutgers)
89) 2006 New Hampshire (#93 Northwestern)
91) 2021 Montana (#74 Washington)
93) 2015 South Dakota State (#160 Kansas)
93) 2013 Northern Iowa (#72 Iowa State)
93) 2004 Maine (#114 Mississippi State)
94) 2010 North Dakota State (#119 Kansas)
95) 2016 Northern Iowa (#71 Iowa State)
97) 2012 Youngstown State (#59 Pitt)
97) 2010 James Madison (#13 Virginia Tech)
101) 2006 Southern Illinois (#84 Indiana)
108) 2015 Portland State (#53 Washington State)
109) 2015 The Citadel (#65 South Carolina)
110) 2016 Illinois State (#35 Northwestern)
117) 2006 Montana State (#94 Colorado)
118) 2010 Jacksonville State (#84 Ole Miss)
120) 2016 Richmond (#107 Virginia)
123) 2022 Southern Illinois (#103 Northwestern)
124) 2018 Nicholls State (#93 Kansas)
124) 2005 UC Davis (#42 Stanford)
128) 2023 Sacramento State (#101 Stanford)
131) 2021 East Tennessee State (#142 Vanderbilt)
131) 2006 Richmond (#153 Duke)
145) 2011 Sacramento State (#87 Oregon State)
148) 2013 Georgia Southern (#53 Florida)
152) 2012 Sacramento State (#156 Colorado)
164) 2021 Jacksonville State (#63 Florida State)
171) 2010 South Dakota (#93 Minnesota)
172) 2021 Northern Arizona (#118 Arizona)
172) 2019 The Citadel (#107 Georgia Tech)
177) 2011 Richmond (#113 Duke)
182) 2017 Liberty (#97 Baylor)
Observations:
I don't know how many FBS vs. FCS games there have been since 2001 but I reckon maybe something like 3,000. In that span I count 169 games in which FCS teams have beaten FBS teams. Again, I don't know exactly what the denominator is but the rate is somewhere in the single digits. Of the FCS wins over FBS teams, 44 of the 169 involved power conference teams losing, the ignominious list above. Again I don't know the denominator but the rate is somewhere in the low single digits. Obviously it is exceedingly rare. Of those 44, 17 shouldn't have even be considered much of upsets if one respects Sagarin. Similarly, about 11 of the FCS upstarts were clearly better than we think Stanford is now. A slightly higher number than that involved FBS teams clearly worse than we think Stanford is now.
Perhaps the real kicker here: 35 of the 44 FCS upstarts actually ended up being FBS level teams in terms of quality. There have really only been a few games in which a non-good FCS team upset a power conference team. And all five of the closest contenders for that rarest of distinctions came against awful power conference teams (i.e., worse than Shaw's 2021 and 2022 teams.) The craziest results in the anything is possible category are games like the 2021 Jacksonville State-Florida State and 2013 Georgia Southern-Florida games. Those games are the ones that most prove the adage anything can happen.
More apropos for us/this game would be those five bottom games. For what it's worth, Cal Poly hasn't had a top 200 team since 2019 when they were #173. It truly would be one of the craziest results in college football history if a team that hasn't been top 200 since 2019 beat a power conference team, even a terrible one. Just does not happen.
Anyway, winning is not a real question and not the measure of anything Saturday. Needs to be a laugher and real evaluations recommence later in September against Syracuse.
17) 2013 North Dakota State (#23 Kansas State)
32) 2014 North Dakota State (#105 Iowa State)
37) 2011 North Dakota State (#88 Minnesota)
44) 2016 North Dakota State (#41 Iowa)
44) 2007 Appalachian State (#21 Michigan)
49) 2009 William & Mary (#73 Virginia)
50) 2004 New Hampshire (#94 Rutgers)
54) 2016 Eastern Washington (#34 Washington State)
60) 2009 Richmond (#78 Duke)
62) 2007 Northern Iowa (#92 Iowa State)
71) 2007 North Dakota State (#123 Minnesota)
79) 2013 Eastern Washington (#29 Oregon State)
82) 2002 Villanova (#158 Rutgers)
89) 2006 New Hampshire (#93 Northwestern)
91) 2021 Montana (#74 Washington)
93) 2015 South Dakota State (#160 Kansas)
93) 2013 Northern Iowa (#72 Iowa State)
93) 2004 Maine (#114 Mississippi State)
94) 2010 North Dakota State (#119 Kansas)
95) 2016 Northern Iowa (#71 Iowa State)
97) 2012 Youngstown State (#59 Pitt)
97) 2010 James Madison (#13 Virginia Tech)
101) 2006 Southern Illinois (#84 Indiana)
108) 2015 Portland State (#53 Washington State)
109) 2015 The Citadel (#65 South Carolina)
110) 2016 Illinois State (#35 Northwestern)
117) 2006 Montana State (#94 Colorado)
118) 2010 Jacksonville State (#84 Ole Miss)
120) 2016 Richmond (#107 Virginia)
123) 2022 Southern Illinois (#103 Northwestern)
124) 2018 Nicholls State (#93 Kansas)
124) 2005 UC Davis (#42 Stanford)
128) 2023 Sacramento State (#101 Stanford)
131) 2021 East Tennessee State (#142 Vanderbilt)
131) 2006 Richmond (#153 Duke)
145) 2011 Sacramento State (#87 Oregon State)
148) 2013 Georgia Southern (#53 Florida)
152) 2012 Sacramento State (#156 Colorado)
164) 2021 Jacksonville State (#63 Florida State)
171) 2010 South Dakota (#93 Minnesota)
172) 2021 Northern Arizona (#118 Arizona)
172) 2019 The Citadel (#107 Georgia Tech)
177) 2011 Richmond (#113 Duke)
182) 2017 Liberty (#97 Baylor)
Observations:
I don't know how many FBS vs. FCS games there have been since 2001 but I reckon maybe something like 3,000. In that span I count 169 games in which FCS teams have beaten FBS teams. Again, I don't know exactly what the denominator is but the rate is somewhere in the single digits. Of the FCS wins over FBS teams, 44 of the 169 involved power conference teams losing, the ignominious list above. Again I don't know the denominator but the rate is somewhere in the low single digits. Obviously it is exceedingly rare. Of those 44, 17 shouldn't have even be considered much of upsets if one respects Sagarin. Similarly, about 11 of the FCS upstarts were clearly better than we think Stanford is now. A slightly higher number than that involved FBS teams clearly worse than we think Stanford is now.
Perhaps the real kicker here: 35 of the 44 FCS upstarts actually ended up being FBS level teams in terms of quality. There have really only been a few games in which a non-good FCS team upset a power conference team. And all five of the closest contenders for that rarest of distinctions came against awful power conference teams (i.e., worse than Shaw's 2021 and 2022 teams.) The craziest results in the anything is possible category are games like the 2021 Jacksonville State-Florida State and 2013 Georgia Southern-Florida games. Those games are the ones that most prove the adage anything can happen.
More apropos for us/this game would be those five bottom games. For what it's worth, Cal Poly hasn't had a top 200 team since 2019 when they were #173. It truly would be one of the craziest results in college football history if a team that hasn't been top 200 since 2019 beat a power conference team, even a terrible one. Just does not happen.
Anyway, winning is not a real question and not the measure of anything Saturday. Needs to be a laugher and real evaluations recommence later in September against Syracuse.
