Apropos of nothing other than musing this morning about excuses David Shaw and his defenders will make for the poor results of recent years, here are the college football "luck" rankings in the years available:
Teevens
2003: #13
2004: #106
Harris
2005: #19
2006: #71
Harbaugh
2007: #36
2008: #66
2009: #78
2010: #20
Shaw
2011: #69
2012: #7
2013: #46
2014: #111
2015: #27
2016: #6
2017: #101
2018: #26
2019: #82
2020: #12
2021: #67
Some observations:
* The median is #46. According to this measure at least, Stanford has tended to be more lucky than unlucky over the last two decades but as you can see there is the kind of broad distribution you'd expect.
* Shaw's median has also been #46, which gives me some confidence in this measure.
* The most recent losing season was in the middle range, suggesting to me that 3-9 was a fair result. That's not encouraging.
* The prior losing season, 2019, was indeed inordinately unlucky.
* The season in between - the Road Dog season in which we ripped off a nice winning streak on the road to close the season - was lucky in the extreme. I think most of us who watched those games with our own eyes could have told you that. Indeed, the above results across the board have a very strong ring of truth to me (for instance, 2012 and 2016 were very lucky to the naked eye while 2004 and 2014 were just as obviously unlucky).
My overall takeaway is that luck is exactly as its concept/reputation would suggest - sometimes you have it and sometimes you don't, with no rhyme or reason. To me this reinforces that we should judge based on end results. You're not going to always be lucky or always be unlucky so, ultimately, it more or less evens out. The win/loss record is meaningful.
Teevens
2003: #13
2004: #106
Harris
2005: #19
2006: #71
Harbaugh
2007: #36
2008: #66
2009: #78
2010: #20
Shaw
2011: #69
2012: #7
2013: #46
2014: #111
2015: #27
2016: #6
2017: #101
2018: #26
2019: #82
2020: #12
2021: #67
Some observations:
* The median is #46. According to this measure at least, Stanford has tended to be more lucky than unlucky over the last two decades but as you can see there is the kind of broad distribution you'd expect.
* Shaw's median has also been #46, which gives me some confidence in this measure.
* The most recent losing season was in the middle range, suggesting to me that 3-9 was a fair result. That's not encouraging.
* The prior losing season, 2019, was indeed inordinately unlucky.
* The season in between - the Road Dog season in which we ripped off a nice winning streak on the road to close the season - was lucky in the extreme. I think most of us who watched those games with our own eyes could have told you that. Indeed, the above results across the board have a very strong ring of truth to me (for instance, 2012 and 2016 were very lucky to the naked eye while 2004 and 2014 were just as obviously unlucky).
My overall takeaway is that luck is exactly as its concept/reputation would suggest - sometimes you have it and sometimes you don't, with no rhyme or reason. To me this reinforces that we should judge based on end results. You're not going to always be lucky or always be unlucky so, ultimately, it more or less evens out. The win/loss record is meaningful.
