Pointless, perhaps, to begin by saying I tend to optimism. But here’s my sense of 2016.
Oregon (5 NFL Combine Players Lost [herinafter CPL) loses six of its front seven off a bad defense, and the one man who almost made it good: DeForrest Buckner, a terrific defensive lineman. And they lose three offensive linemen, including their one star, Ist team all Pac 12 OT Tyrone Johnstone, and their best receiver, 1,000+ yarder Bralon Addison \, along with another elite receiver, Brandon Marshall. They’ve not recruited as well in the last three seasons but will offensive skill players,
Here’s something that we haven’t seen in Eugene in memory: only three returning players to earn even honorable mention All Pac 12, and only one a first or second teamer. This is Oregon?
And if they cannot fully replace Vernon Adams at QB, the offense might slip a bit more, on a team that will need every point it can get. (More on that to follow)
And Oregon’s incoming sophomores, based on the recruiting rankings, don’t fill the graduation gaps. The Ducks need seven new front seven players on defense; they signed only one four or five star recruit there last year, DE Canton Kaumatuele, and only one four star OL
And bear in mind that the Ducks allowed 37.5 points last season, worst in the conference; 4,75 yards per rush, which ranked 8th; a 139.1 opposing passer rating, also 8th; and 79 plays of over 20 yards, next to last. They did rank second in sacks, but lose Deforrest Buckner, who accounted for 10.5 of them, second in the Pac-12—and it’s not as if all those sacks made a difference.
In a sentence: Oregon appears certain to fall.
Utah (6 CPLs) loses their great RB, Booker, a solid and experienced QB in Wilson, and their lethal weapon punter, Thomas Hackett. Their defense will swarm—despite the losses of four guys headed to the combines, three of them from the Ute’s wicked front seven— and they’ll be tough at home. But this wasn’t an elite team last year.
But they do have their starting lines almost intact. They lose just one OL and have two stars—Lotulelei on D and Dimick on the O, plus Dielman (second-team All-Pac-12) and Asiata (honorable mention).
But you need guys making plays being them, and Booker is gone, Wilson is gone, and Hackett won’t be back there setting every offense back seven additional yards per punt. And Wilson’s four—four—top receivers are gone, meaning the Utes will be breaking in an all new pass offense next year, and that from a team that ranked 11th in the conference in passing.
How many 17-14 games can the Utes win? And what happens if they get down by more than a score?
Still not an elite team, or close to it, but no defense plays as fanatically—a lovely trait against run-heavy teams, but that’s not the Pac-12.
At UCLA, even if Josh Rosen is an elite QB, he will be without his three best receivers, three of his offensive linemen—two of them second team all conference— and his very good RB, second teamer Paul Perkins. And Mora’s UCLA teams find ways to lose against ordinary teams and good ones; they were 7-4 against unranked teams last year, and finished 8-5 on the strength of a schedule that featured only two ranked teams all year.
And a key point: Explosive plays are key to winning football, and UCLA loses their three most explosive players. TE Thomas Duarte, RB Paul Perkins, and WR Jordan Payton combined for 41 plays of over 20 yards, and 23 of over 30. (By comparison, Christian McCaffrey’s numbers were 29 and 12.) Those three guys are gone; their next most explosive player was Darren Andrews, with 20+ and 30+ yard play numbers of four and one.
And they lose nine NFL combine invitees, which ties them with Alabama for third most in the country.
USC (7 CPLs) will have a mammoth offensive line, two terrific running backs, the conference’s best receiver and biggest head case (Smith-Schuster). And they prey on the weak and fall to the strong; they are 3-14—three and fourteen—against ranked teams over the last four seasons.
Plus their defense is a question mark, with all three starting DLs and two LBs, including the non-pareil Sua Cravens, gone. Figure lots of points, lots of mistakes, and a continued inability to win the big games.
But: If Rivals is to be trusted, USC’s true sophomore class will fill all gradation losses, and more. In that recruiting class, UCLA, Oregon and Notre Dame combined added seven recruits with 6.0 or 6.1 Rivals ratings, while USC alone signed ten—including three linebackers not including the class’s linebacking star 5.9 LB Cameron Smith. And while Oregon was singing five players rated 5.8 or 5.9, USC was adding ten.
USC can underperform and win the South easily.
Everyone is on the Washington (2 CPLs) bandwagon, and it’s easy to jump on one for which a coach like Chris Pederson is holding the reins. They have a terrific running back with a freshman year behind him, a stout defense with a phenomenal defensive backfield that should stay that way, and they get the Ducks in Seattle.
But all these pundits seem to be ignoring the fact the UW went 3-4 in their last seven games, their losses by an average of 11 points. Somehow, their annihilations of Oregon State and Washington State in their final two games have created a Peak-End Effect on pundits.
And another theme we hear too often about the Huskies: “They are lethal at home.” In a sense, that’s true: Over the last two seasons, they are 3-6 against Pac-12 teams in Seattle, with wins against Arizona, Washington State and Oregon State, and losses to Cal, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, UCLA and ASU. Home field advantage?
A sentence: Best not to get carried away here yet. They were only 7-6 last season after going 9-4 and 8-6 in their previous two, although three of their losses were by just 3. 6, and 6 points. And the North looks weak, save Stanford, so UW’s a good pick for number two in the division because they have an elite defensive backfield that can keep Oregon from exploding against them.
As to our biggest OOC opponent, Notre Dame:
They lose ten NFL combine invitees, second most in the country (Ohio State loses 14), including four guys many draftnicks consider the top five at their position going into the NFL draft: #1 LB Jaylon Smith, #2 OT Ronnie Stanley, #2 C Nick Martin, and #5 Will Fuller, along with the damned good DT Sheldon Day and two more starters from their front seven. 1000 yards-plus running back C.J. Prosise, and their #2 and #4 WRs, Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle, and starting CB Kevaire Russell and S Elijah Shumate
That means 10 returning starters, none of them obvious stars, but a good sophomore running back, good TE in Durham Smythe, and—well, a team that doesn’t seem to have Stanford’s star power.
A sentence: Should slip at least a little. Very beatable.
Once you get past these teams, Stanford faces some truly bad teams—Colorado, Rice and Oregon State are likely to finish in the bottom 20 and Cal, without Goff and his three very good receivers, could fall badly. Kansas State and Arizona seem destined to below-averageness. And Stanford gets most of these teams at Stanford Stadium, which will host the weakest home season in memory, with only one good team, USC, and one perhaps credible one, Washington State, which lost its last game of last season by a billion points.
Expectation
Much better; USC (but must replace get decent QB play in place of Kessler)
Better: Washington, Washington State
Decline: Notre Dame, Utah
Major decline: Oregon
Same crap, new year: UCLA
Winner: Stanford. USC doesn’t win big games and will have a rookie QB, UCLA doesn’t beat Stanford and suffers huge losses on their offense, and Utah cannot win with just an all-out front seven and a very good coach. And Oregon's defense will kill them, no matter what their offense musters with a brand new QB.
And Stanford has the greatest offensive weapon in college football--and on a team with other weapons who can kill a defense that overcommits--and, for the first time in five seasons, a QB who can make all the throws, albeit without the deep ball accuracy of the guy he is replacing. On defense, they have the conference's best DE, best OLBs, and an elite and ten-deep secondary, and great defensive depth except on the DL.
Oregon (5 NFL Combine Players Lost [herinafter CPL) loses six of its front seven off a bad defense, and the one man who almost made it good: DeForrest Buckner, a terrific defensive lineman. And they lose three offensive linemen, including their one star, Ist team all Pac 12 OT Tyrone Johnstone, and their best receiver, 1,000+ yarder Bralon Addison \, along with another elite receiver, Brandon Marshall. They’ve not recruited as well in the last three seasons but will offensive skill players,
Here’s something that we haven’t seen in Eugene in memory: only three returning players to earn even honorable mention All Pac 12, and only one a first or second teamer. This is Oregon?
And if they cannot fully replace Vernon Adams at QB, the offense might slip a bit more, on a team that will need every point it can get. (More on that to follow)
And Oregon’s incoming sophomores, based on the recruiting rankings, don’t fill the graduation gaps. The Ducks need seven new front seven players on defense; they signed only one four or five star recruit there last year, DE Canton Kaumatuele, and only one four star OL
And bear in mind that the Ducks allowed 37.5 points last season, worst in the conference; 4,75 yards per rush, which ranked 8th; a 139.1 opposing passer rating, also 8th; and 79 plays of over 20 yards, next to last. They did rank second in sacks, but lose Deforrest Buckner, who accounted for 10.5 of them, second in the Pac-12—and it’s not as if all those sacks made a difference.
In a sentence: Oregon appears certain to fall.
Utah (6 CPLs) loses their great RB, Booker, a solid and experienced QB in Wilson, and their lethal weapon punter, Thomas Hackett. Their defense will swarm—despite the losses of four guys headed to the combines, three of them from the Ute’s wicked front seven— and they’ll be tough at home. But this wasn’t an elite team last year.
But they do have their starting lines almost intact. They lose just one OL and have two stars—Lotulelei on D and Dimick on the O, plus Dielman (second-team All-Pac-12) and Asiata (honorable mention).
But you need guys making plays being them, and Booker is gone, Wilson is gone, and Hackett won’t be back there setting every offense back seven additional yards per punt. And Wilson’s four—four—top receivers are gone, meaning the Utes will be breaking in an all new pass offense next year, and that from a team that ranked 11th in the conference in passing.
How many 17-14 games can the Utes win? And what happens if they get down by more than a score?
Still not an elite team, or close to it, but no defense plays as fanatically—a lovely trait against run-heavy teams, but that’s not the Pac-12.
At UCLA, even if Josh Rosen is an elite QB, he will be without his three best receivers, three of his offensive linemen—two of them second team all conference— and his very good RB, second teamer Paul Perkins. And Mora’s UCLA teams find ways to lose against ordinary teams and good ones; they were 7-4 against unranked teams last year, and finished 8-5 on the strength of a schedule that featured only two ranked teams all year.
And a key point: Explosive plays are key to winning football, and UCLA loses their three most explosive players. TE Thomas Duarte, RB Paul Perkins, and WR Jordan Payton combined for 41 plays of over 20 yards, and 23 of over 30. (By comparison, Christian McCaffrey’s numbers were 29 and 12.) Those three guys are gone; their next most explosive player was Darren Andrews, with 20+ and 30+ yard play numbers of four and one.
And they lose nine NFL combine invitees, which ties them with Alabama for third most in the country.
USC (7 CPLs) will have a mammoth offensive line, two terrific running backs, the conference’s best receiver and biggest head case (Smith-Schuster). And they prey on the weak and fall to the strong; they are 3-14—three and fourteen—against ranked teams over the last four seasons.
Plus their defense is a question mark, with all three starting DLs and two LBs, including the non-pareil Sua Cravens, gone. Figure lots of points, lots of mistakes, and a continued inability to win the big games.
But: If Rivals is to be trusted, USC’s true sophomore class will fill all gradation losses, and more. In that recruiting class, UCLA, Oregon and Notre Dame combined added seven recruits with 6.0 or 6.1 Rivals ratings, while USC alone signed ten—including three linebackers not including the class’s linebacking star 5.9 LB Cameron Smith. And while Oregon was singing five players rated 5.8 or 5.9, USC was adding ten.
USC can underperform and win the South easily.
Everyone is on the Washington (2 CPLs) bandwagon, and it’s easy to jump on one for which a coach like Chris Pederson is holding the reins. They have a terrific running back with a freshman year behind him, a stout defense with a phenomenal defensive backfield that should stay that way, and they get the Ducks in Seattle.
But all these pundits seem to be ignoring the fact the UW went 3-4 in their last seven games, their losses by an average of 11 points. Somehow, their annihilations of Oregon State and Washington State in their final two games have created a Peak-End Effect on pundits.
And another theme we hear too often about the Huskies: “They are lethal at home.” In a sense, that’s true: Over the last two seasons, they are 3-6 against Pac-12 teams in Seattle, with wins against Arizona, Washington State and Oregon State, and losses to Cal, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, UCLA and ASU. Home field advantage?
A sentence: Best not to get carried away here yet. They were only 7-6 last season after going 9-4 and 8-6 in their previous two, although three of their losses were by just 3. 6, and 6 points. And the North looks weak, save Stanford, so UW’s a good pick for number two in the division because they have an elite defensive backfield that can keep Oregon from exploding against them.
As to our biggest OOC opponent, Notre Dame:
They lose ten NFL combine invitees, second most in the country (Ohio State loses 14), including four guys many draftnicks consider the top five at their position going into the NFL draft: #1 LB Jaylon Smith, #2 OT Ronnie Stanley, #2 C Nick Martin, and #5 Will Fuller, along with the damned good DT Sheldon Day and two more starters from their front seven. 1000 yards-plus running back C.J. Prosise, and their #2 and #4 WRs, Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle, and starting CB Kevaire Russell and S Elijah Shumate
That means 10 returning starters, none of them obvious stars, but a good sophomore running back, good TE in Durham Smythe, and—well, a team that doesn’t seem to have Stanford’s star power.
A sentence: Should slip at least a little. Very beatable.
Once you get past these teams, Stanford faces some truly bad teams—Colorado, Rice and Oregon State are likely to finish in the bottom 20 and Cal, without Goff and his three very good receivers, could fall badly. Kansas State and Arizona seem destined to below-averageness. And Stanford gets most of these teams at Stanford Stadium, which will host the weakest home season in memory, with only one good team, USC, and one perhaps credible one, Washington State, which lost its last game of last season by a billion points.
Expectation
Much better; USC (but must replace get decent QB play in place of Kessler)
Better: Washington, Washington State
Decline: Notre Dame, Utah
Major decline: Oregon
Same crap, new year: UCLA
Winner: Stanford. USC doesn’t win big games and will have a rookie QB, UCLA doesn’t beat Stanford and suffers huge losses on their offense, and Utah cannot win with just an all-out front seven and a very good coach. And Oregon's defense will kill them, no matter what their offense musters with a brand new QB.
And Stanford has the greatest offensive weapon in college football--and on a team with other weapons who can kill a defense that overcommits--and, for the first time in five seasons, a QB who can make all the throws, albeit without the deep ball accuracy of the guy he is replacing. On defense, they have the conference's best DE, best OLBs, and an elite and ten-deep secondary, and great defensive depth except on the DL.
