Rivals site publisher Chris Peak sent me five questions about Stanford's season and here are my answers.
On a run/pass basis, where did Stanford's change in offensive approach come from this season?
Rayburn: It came from necessity. There were some signs in the offseason that Stanford's run game was struggling in open scrimmages, but it's not wise to read much into scrimmages where the "opponent" knows your playbook. But the season opener against San Diego State was alarming because of how little success Stanford had with Bryce Love and an offensive line with plenty of talent and experience.
The assumption that the blocking unit and run game would get going never came true. A combination of injuries, opponents selling out to stop Love and ineffective adjustments to the run game led to a 3.7 YPC average for the season. It was the worst YPC since 2014 (4.3 yards), which is a season of offensive underachievement that fans would rather forget. The last season the Cardinal running backs averaged fewer than four yards a carry was 2007, during which Stanford won four games.
Stanford's passing game and pass protection were the strengths of the offense, and with each passing week it became more clear the attempts to fix the run game weren't going to get the offense back to the strategy head coach David Shaw prefers.
In each game Stanford eventually found its way to lean on the arm of KJ Costello and the talented receiving corps led by JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trent Irwin, Kaden Smith and Colby Parkinson. Then against Washington State Oct. 27 Shaw and the offensive staff made a commitment to use a faster pace and rely on the passing game. The result was the best first half of offensive production of the season. The Cardinal lost that game but the offense showed what it could do when it spread out defenses and let the offensive line play to its pass protection strength.
What are KJ Costello's biggest strengths and weaknesses?
Rayburn: Costello's greatest strength is confidence and the mentality with which he plays the position. Obviously he has the arm talent to make a variety of throws, but he doesn't make throws that make you sit back and say, 'Wow!' Andrew Luck did. Kevin Hogan did sometimes but for the most part he didn't shine in that regard, either.
But Costello has a great deal of belief in himself and his teammates. When he makes a bad play, or things aren't going well in general, he's always confident that he can turn the game around.
A significant part Stanford's passing game relies on throwing the ball to big receiving targets and allowing the Cardinal athletes to make plays on the ball. It works because Arcega-Whiteside and Kaden Smith in particular are future NFL players with the physical skill sets to beat defenders in those situations. It also perfectly fits Costello's personality to look at a receiver who would be considered covered by many people and throw the ball up where his teammate can make a play. Costello puts in a lot of work with hs guys to build trust that those passes will work.
He has a couple troubling weaknesses. He still has a tendency to lock on a primary receiver or not see that one of his receivers is running wide open. A number of big plays have been missed because of his sometimes limited vision. He also will make bad decisions at times to try to force a play when a sack or throwing the ball away is a better choice. But that's not unusual for a young quarterback. The problem is that in a couple games he's gone through a rough stretch that severely hurt the team's chances to win. He threw two interception against Utah -- including a 100-yard pick six -- that helped put Stanford so far behind that it couldn't rally for a win.
What kind of receiver is JJ Arcega-Whiteside and what challenges does he present for a defense?
Rayburn: It's easy to look at highlights of Arcega-Whiteside boxing out defensive backs in the end zone, or winning jump balls, and conclude that he's a physical wideout. His 14 touchdowns are mostly due to his ability to make catches even while the defensive back does everything short of mugging him or ripping off his uniform. He's much more of a complete wideout than he was last year and he can beat defenders in a variety of ways. That said, what makes him special is his ability to rise above a defender and his vise-like hands.
What vulnerabilities exist in Stanford's pass defense?
Rayburn: Stanford's pass defense is most vulnerable in the middle. The safety play has been inconsistent this season and that was worsened by the season-ending injury suffered by safety Ben Edwards. He was showing improvement and in his absence Malik Antoine has played much more than expected. He and Frank Buncom get the lion's share of the snaps at safety and both have struggled mightily at times with their angles to the ball carrier and tackling. Neither has shown an ability to make plays on the ball like Justin Reid, who roamed the center field of the defense last season.
In the past Stanford's defense relied on giving up short passes that stayed short because of the sure tackling of the defensive backs. The general idea was that Stanford's front seven would eventually "Party in the Backfield" -- the name given to the pass rush success that for years was among the best in the nation -- to end a drive so the defensive backs needed to keep the plays in front of them. This year Stanford has given up far more plays of 15 or more yards than defensive coordinator Lance Anderson wants to see.
How much is riding on this game for Stanford? Do the fans generally view 2018 as a solid season or does the team need to win this game to reach that level?
Rayburn: Stanford needs to win this game to put the best spin possible on a season that failed to meet expectations. Injuries hit the Cardinal hard. It's the worst season of the Shaw era in terms of the number of players who have missed games and that will be felt in the Sun Bowl as well. Stanford's fans understand that players missing games, and performing at less than 100 percent because they were hurt, played a role in the Cardinal failing to win the Pac-12's North Division. Stanford lost games to Washington State and Washington by a total of seven points, but Shaw admitted after the loss in Seattle that the team was further from reaching its potential than those close scores suggested. An objective observer wouldn't say Stanford ever fully reached its potential this season and that realization always hits a coaching staff and fan base hard. A win in the Sun Bowl at least gives Stanford a ninth win for the seventh year under Shaw and likely puts them in the final top 25. That's a better "down year" to sell than 8-5.
On a run/pass basis, where did Stanford's change in offensive approach come from this season?
Rayburn: It came from necessity. There were some signs in the offseason that Stanford's run game was struggling in open scrimmages, but it's not wise to read much into scrimmages where the "opponent" knows your playbook. But the season opener against San Diego State was alarming because of how little success Stanford had with Bryce Love and an offensive line with plenty of talent and experience.
The assumption that the blocking unit and run game would get going never came true. A combination of injuries, opponents selling out to stop Love and ineffective adjustments to the run game led to a 3.7 YPC average for the season. It was the worst YPC since 2014 (4.3 yards), which is a season of offensive underachievement that fans would rather forget. The last season the Cardinal running backs averaged fewer than four yards a carry was 2007, during which Stanford won four games.
Stanford's passing game and pass protection were the strengths of the offense, and with each passing week it became more clear the attempts to fix the run game weren't going to get the offense back to the strategy head coach David Shaw prefers.
In each game Stanford eventually found its way to lean on the arm of KJ Costello and the talented receiving corps led by JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trent Irwin, Kaden Smith and Colby Parkinson. Then against Washington State Oct. 27 Shaw and the offensive staff made a commitment to use a faster pace and rely on the passing game. The result was the best first half of offensive production of the season. The Cardinal lost that game but the offense showed what it could do when it spread out defenses and let the offensive line play to its pass protection strength.
What are KJ Costello's biggest strengths and weaknesses?
Rayburn: Costello's greatest strength is confidence and the mentality with which he plays the position. Obviously he has the arm talent to make a variety of throws, but he doesn't make throws that make you sit back and say, 'Wow!' Andrew Luck did. Kevin Hogan did sometimes but for the most part he didn't shine in that regard, either.
But Costello has a great deal of belief in himself and his teammates. When he makes a bad play, or things aren't going well in general, he's always confident that he can turn the game around.
A significant part Stanford's passing game relies on throwing the ball to big receiving targets and allowing the Cardinal athletes to make plays on the ball. It works because Arcega-Whiteside and Kaden Smith in particular are future NFL players with the physical skill sets to beat defenders in those situations. It also perfectly fits Costello's personality to look at a receiver who would be considered covered by many people and throw the ball up where his teammate can make a play. Costello puts in a lot of work with hs guys to build trust that those passes will work.
He has a couple troubling weaknesses. He still has a tendency to lock on a primary receiver or not see that one of his receivers is running wide open. A number of big plays have been missed because of his sometimes limited vision. He also will make bad decisions at times to try to force a play when a sack or throwing the ball away is a better choice. But that's not unusual for a young quarterback. The problem is that in a couple games he's gone through a rough stretch that severely hurt the team's chances to win. He threw two interception against Utah -- including a 100-yard pick six -- that helped put Stanford so far behind that it couldn't rally for a win.
What kind of receiver is JJ Arcega-Whiteside and what challenges does he present for a defense?
Rayburn: It's easy to look at highlights of Arcega-Whiteside boxing out defensive backs in the end zone, or winning jump balls, and conclude that he's a physical wideout. His 14 touchdowns are mostly due to his ability to make catches even while the defensive back does everything short of mugging him or ripping off his uniform. He's much more of a complete wideout than he was last year and he can beat defenders in a variety of ways. That said, what makes him special is his ability to rise above a defender and his vise-like hands.
What vulnerabilities exist in Stanford's pass defense?
Rayburn: Stanford's pass defense is most vulnerable in the middle. The safety play has been inconsistent this season and that was worsened by the season-ending injury suffered by safety Ben Edwards. He was showing improvement and in his absence Malik Antoine has played much more than expected. He and Frank Buncom get the lion's share of the snaps at safety and both have struggled mightily at times with their angles to the ball carrier and tackling. Neither has shown an ability to make plays on the ball like Justin Reid, who roamed the center field of the defense last season.
In the past Stanford's defense relied on giving up short passes that stayed short because of the sure tackling of the defensive backs. The general idea was that Stanford's front seven would eventually "Party in the Backfield" -- the name given to the pass rush success that for years was among the best in the nation -- to end a drive so the defensive backs needed to keep the plays in front of them. This year Stanford has given up far more plays of 15 or more yards than defensive coordinator Lance Anderson wants to see.
How much is riding on this game for Stanford? Do the fans generally view 2018 as a solid season or does the team need to win this game to reach that level?
Rayburn: Stanford needs to win this game to put the best spin possible on a season that failed to meet expectations. Injuries hit the Cardinal hard. It's the worst season of the Shaw era in terms of the number of players who have missed games and that will be felt in the Sun Bowl as well. Stanford's fans understand that players missing games, and performing at less than 100 percent because they were hurt, played a role in the Cardinal failing to win the Pac-12's North Division. Stanford lost games to Washington State and Washington by a total of seven points, but Shaw admitted after the loss in Seattle that the team was further from reaching its potential than those close scores suggested. An objective observer wouldn't say Stanford ever fully reached its potential this season and that realization always hits a coaching staff and fan base hard. A win in the Sun Bowl at least gives Stanford a ninth win for the seventh year under Shaw and likely puts them in the final top 25. That's a better "down year" to sell than 8-5.
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