I've based this on the 2014 season-ending Sagarin rankings, and then made small adjustments for likely gains (Notre Dame and Cal) and likely drops (Oregon, Arizona and Washington). I've been conservative with the drops, adjusting no more than three points. I've been more generous with the gains for Notre Dame and Cal.
Column one is the projected spreads; column two indicates the probability of a Stanford win, based on that spread:
USC +4 38
Oregon +3 .41
UCLA -2 ,56
NDame -2 .56
NW -12 .81
Cal -14 .86
WSU -15 86
AZ -15 .86
UW -15 .86
OSU -17 .88
Colo -17 .88
UCF -18 .90
Projected win-loss 8.8-3.2
This squares with my sense of the upcoming season. Going winless against our top four opponents is very unlikely, and 2-2 against them is more likely than 1-3.
The probabilities show we are likely to suffer at least one upset loss despite the double-figure spread, and that going 6-2 in these heavily favored games is as likely an outcome as winning them all.
Interested in reactions.
Column one is the projected spreads; column two indicates the probability of a Stanford win, based on that spread:
USC +4 38
Oregon +3 .41
UCLA -2 ,56
NDame -2 .56
NW -12 .81
Cal -14 .86
WSU -15 86
AZ -15 .86
UW -15 .86
OSU -17 .88
Colo -17 .88
UCF -18 .90
Projected win-loss 8.8-3.2
This squares with my sense of the upcoming season. Going winless against our top four opponents is very unlikely, and 2-2 against them is more likely than 1-3.
The probabilities show we are likely to suffer at least one upset loss despite the double-figure spread, and that going 6-2 in these heavily favored games is as likely an outcome as winning them all.
Interested in reactions.
