Football Outsiders now has enough data points to start updating their FEI rankings. As a refresher, these rankings are based on an algorithm that calculates the per-possession scoring advantage each team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. In other words, it makes a series of corrections to account for pace, home field advantage, and strength of schedule to give us IMHO the best ranking available for how offenses/defenses/special teams units fare. Here's what it looks like so far this season for Pac-12 teams/teams on our schedule:
Overall
13. Notre Dame
16. Arizona State
17. Oregon
25. Washington
26. Kansas State
30. UCLA
38. Utah
41. USC
44. Stanford
46. Oregon State
77. Washington State
79. Cal
97. Colorado
103. Arizona
113. Vanderbilt
Offense
14. Arizona State
17. Oregon State
19. UCLA
25. Oregon
34. Stanford
37. Notre Dame
39. Kansas State
44. USC
48. Washington
70. Utah
81. Washington State
85. Cal
89. Arizona
103. Vanderbilt
109. Colorado
Defense
10. Washington
15. Utah
16. Notre Dame
22. Oregon
26. Arizona State
38. Kansas State
50. UCLA
62. Stanford
64. USC
66. Cal
70. Colorado
72. Washington State
93. Oregon State
102. Arizona
113. Vanderbilt
Special Teams
7. Kansas State
17. UCLA
21. Oregon State
29. Stanford
36. Notre Dame
43. Oregon
52. USC
77. Colorado
82. Washington State
84. Arizona State
99. Washington
102. Cal
109. Vanderbilt
113. Utah
117. Arizona
Observations:
* FEI views Stanford's quality as essentially identical to last year. We haven't been top 30 since 2017. Also, the 2016 team (#31) was the median Harbaugh/Shaw team, so the 2021 team looks sub-par. This is the trajectory issue for the program. We need to play better if we want to reverse the downward trajectory of the program/not become mired in a mediocre morass of non-relevant Power Five teams.
* The median on offense is the 2008 Tavita Pritchard-led offense (#31), so we're just behind that so far this season. I'd anticipate that McKee continuing to have more of a role on the overall offensive stats (as the Kansas State game becomes a smaller percentage of the sample) and the offensive line developing will likely push us to be a top 30/slightly above the Stanford median offense. But right now you'd have to say the offense is good but definitely not great.
* The defense is also below the median set by the 2015 defense (#52). I never want to be in a position of cheer leading mediocre performance, but considering that Anderson's best defenses in the last five years are #47 in 2018 and #60 in 2017 this is actually somewhat encouraging. Given our talent and recent performance I would have taken #62 in defense. It's still very mediocre of course and markedly worse than the offense.
* Special teams play is essentially right at the median set by last year's play (#30). I think there is much more upside than we've seen out of Karty and Sanborn so this is arguably encouraging but the bottom line is really par for the course.
* Friday's game is scarier than I gave it credit for on Sunday. Arizona State is great on offense and at least good on defense. Especially being on the road, this is probably the hardest game of the season. A win would be gravy, definitely not something I'm expecting.
* Some may be surprised by Washington's placement but it's an example of why I appreciate these kind of metrics. Win-loss records, especially early in a season, can distort perceptions of team quality. Washington's defense is very serious.
* There's a glass half full/glass half empty way to look at our schedule. On the one hand, we have yet to play three of the top four top 25 FEI teams on our schedule. In that sense, we need to buckle up for a tough schedule ahead. On the other hand, four of the five lowest ranked FEI teams are ahead so we do get some easier sledding.
* This dichotomy is pretty stark on both sides of the ball. The Stanford defense has yet to face the two best offenses on the schedule and the Stanford offense has yet to face the three best defenses on the schedule, but they each get three cream puffs. That's meaningful because Vanderbilt is the only cream puff we've faced in any phase yet this season.
* If McKee can continue to play well and the defense can continue to bend but not break against Arizona State, that would be quite encouraging. If it's a punch in the mouth/step back for either or both that wouldn't be surprising or cause to fundamentally change what we think we have with this team.
Overall
13. Notre Dame
16. Arizona State
17. Oregon
25. Washington
26. Kansas State
30. UCLA
38. Utah
41. USC
44. Stanford
46. Oregon State
77. Washington State
79. Cal
97. Colorado
103. Arizona
113. Vanderbilt
Offense
14. Arizona State
17. Oregon State
19. UCLA
25. Oregon
34. Stanford
37. Notre Dame
39. Kansas State
44. USC
48. Washington
70. Utah
81. Washington State
85. Cal
89. Arizona
103. Vanderbilt
109. Colorado
Defense
10. Washington
15. Utah
16. Notre Dame
22. Oregon
26. Arizona State
38. Kansas State
50. UCLA
62. Stanford
64. USC
66. Cal
70. Colorado
72. Washington State
93. Oregon State
102. Arizona
113. Vanderbilt
Special Teams
7. Kansas State
17. UCLA
21. Oregon State
29. Stanford
36. Notre Dame
43. Oregon
52. USC
77. Colorado
82. Washington State
84. Arizona State
99. Washington
102. Cal
109. Vanderbilt
113. Utah
117. Arizona
Observations:
* FEI views Stanford's quality as essentially identical to last year. We haven't been top 30 since 2017. Also, the 2016 team (#31) was the median Harbaugh/Shaw team, so the 2021 team looks sub-par. This is the trajectory issue for the program. We need to play better if we want to reverse the downward trajectory of the program/not become mired in a mediocre morass of non-relevant Power Five teams.
* The median on offense is the 2008 Tavita Pritchard-led offense (#31), so we're just behind that so far this season. I'd anticipate that McKee continuing to have more of a role on the overall offensive stats (as the Kansas State game becomes a smaller percentage of the sample) and the offensive line developing will likely push us to be a top 30/slightly above the Stanford median offense. But right now you'd have to say the offense is good but definitely not great.
* The defense is also below the median set by the 2015 defense (#52). I never want to be in a position of cheer leading mediocre performance, but considering that Anderson's best defenses in the last five years are #47 in 2018 and #60 in 2017 this is actually somewhat encouraging. Given our talent and recent performance I would have taken #62 in defense. It's still very mediocre of course and markedly worse than the offense.
* Special teams play is essentially right at the median set by last year's play (#30). I think there is much more upside than we've seen out of Karty and Sanborn so this is arguably encouraging but the bottom line is really par for the course.
* Friday's game is scarier than I gave it credit for on Sunday. Arizona State is great on offense and at least good on defense. Especially being on the road, this is probably the hardest game of the season. A win would be gravy, definitely not something I'm expecting.
* Some may be surprised by Washington's placement but it's an example of why I appreciate these kind of metrics. Win-loss records, especially early in a season, can distort perceptions of team quality. Washington's defense is very serious.
* There's a glass half full/glass half empty way to look at our schedule. On the one hand, we have yet to play three of the top four top 25 FEI teams on our schedule. In that sense, we need to buckle up for a tough schedule ahead. On the other hand, four of the five lowest ranked FEI teams are ahead so we do get some easier sledding.
* This dichotomy is pretty stark on both sides of the ball. The Stanford defense has yet to face the two best offenses on the schedule and the Stanford offense has yet to face the three best defenses on the schedule, but they each get three cream puffs. That's meaningful because Vanderbilt is the only cream puff we've faced in any phase yet this season.
* If McKee can continue to play well and the defense can continue to bend but not break against Arizona State, that would be quite encouraging. If it's a punch in the mouth/step back for either or both that wouldn't be surprising or cause to fundamentally change what we think we have with this team.
