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Taking stock of the ACC landscape

Ok, new conference, might as well get to know it a bit. This post (and likely ones to follow) will try to get a sense of what we're getting into.

2023 Sagarin Rankings

10. Florida State
21. SMU
23. Clemson
27. Louisville
32. North Carolina
34. Duke
35. Miami
37. NC State
46. Cal
52. Virginia Tech
56. Georgia Tech
76. Syracuse
87. Pitt
90. Wake Forest
93. Virginia
98. Boston College
100. Stanford

2023 247 Talent Composite

5. Clemson
12. Miami
17. North Carolina
20. Florida State
28. Louisville
34. SMU
36. Georgia Tech
37. Stanford
38. NC State
39. Pitt
45. Cal
54. Boston College
59. Virginia Tech
66. Virginia
67. Duke
69. Syracuse
70. Wake Forest

2023 On3 Transfer Portal Rankings (out of 69)

2. Louisville
10. Florida State
13. Miami
14. Virginia Tech
18. Cal
30. Pitt
35. North Carolina
40. Duke
42. NC State
51. Georgia Tech
55. Virginia
56. Boston College
60. Wake Forest
62. Syracuse
65. Clemson
69. Stanford

SMU was not ranked because On3 only looks at Power Fives teams and SMU was not Power Five this season.

2024 Industry Recruiting Rankings

3. Florida State
9. Miami
17. Clemson
26. North Carolina
31. Stanford
35. NC State
37. Virginia Tech
40. Georgia Tech
41. Pitt
42. Duke
47. Wake Forest
49. Louisville
58. Syracuse
60. Cal
67. SMU
69. Virginia
118. Boston College

ACC Teams By 2021-2023 Median Sagarin Ranking

14. Clemson
16. Florida State
27. Louisville
32. Pitt
34. Wake Forest
37. NC State
39. Miami
44. Duke
50. SMU
50. North Carolina
65. Cal
76. Syracuse
79. Virginia Tech
84. Georgia Tech
88. Virginia
89. Stanford
98. Boston College

All-Time Top 25 Seasons

(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)

14. Clemson - 36
15. Florida State - 34
17. Miami - 33
25. Georgia Tech - 25
27. Pitt - 22
28. Syracuse - 21
30. Stanford - 20
30. Virginia Tech - 20
38. Duke - 17
38. North Carolina - 17
47. Boston College - 14
47. Cal - 14
47. NC State - 14
54. Louisville - 11
60. Virginia - 9
65. Wake Forest - 5

I did not rank SMU when I did that analysis because they weren't Power Five at the time, but historically they have 10 top 25 seasons.

21st Century Top 25 Seasons

(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)

6. Clemson - 16
8. Florida State - 14
14. Virginia Tech - 12
21. Miami - 9
24. Louisville - 8
24. Stanford - 8
36. Boston College - 5
36. Pitt - 5
44. Georgia Tech - 4
44. NC State - 4
52. Cal - 3
55. North Carolina - 2
55. Syracuse - 2
55. Virginia - 2
55. Wake Forest - 2
63. Duke - 1

If SMU finishes this current season in the top 25, as they currently are, it will be their first time doing that not only in the 21st century but since the mid-80s death penalty.

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My take on this landscape:

* Clemson and Florida State are powerhouses, albeit trending in opposite directions. Clemson has an interesting season ahead trying to convince the world they're not fading while Florida State has a great coach and team that will be super pissed off to avenge the playoff snub.

* Louisville is a rising power that appears to be one of the big winners nationally of the transfer portal/NIL environment. Plus they have a good coach. They are making a play to pass Clemson for the #2 program in the conference. In a 12 team playoff environment, there may be nothing more important in college football than being #2 in a power conference. But Clemson has historical advantages/staying power that should not be dismissed.

* SMU is looking like the upstart new kid on the block and it will put a lot of wind in their sails to get into a power conference. Watch out for them.

* Kind of quietly NC State has become a perennial 8-9 win team. Really solid program right now. Miami and North Carolina have been more underachieving but have enough going for them they should be viewed in a similar echelon.

* Pitt and Wake Forest have been similarly solid teams in recent years but really took one in the teeth in 2023. It will be interesting to see whether such established coaches bounce back or if they don't have the juice anymore and/or the headwinds of the transfer portal/NIL environment prove too much to overcome.

* The other half of the conference is pretty much fodder. Duke had experienced relevance with Elko but now he's gone and the candidates who would have been exciting hires got scooped up by Houston and Indiana. I think it's pretty much Jamey Chadwell or bust for Duke and I'm betting on bust. Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are rebuilding and in such a situation it's always possible a coach really finds a groove and changes the trajectory of the program but I probably wouldn't bet on more than one of those ascending to the level of true relevance in the ACC in the next few years. Cal and Boston College aren't rebuilding, as of yet, but are about as milquetoast mediocre irrelevant as it gets.

Looking at this landscape, our 2024 schedule includes a couple powers (Clemson and Louisville), a couple solid contenders (SMU and NC State), and a bunch of mediocrity (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Cal), some in rebuilds and some not. In the near term we should hope to win a few games against this mediocrity but in the not very distant future we should have every expectation of being better than a lot of teams in this league. Being top half of this league isn't hard at all and I think it's reasonable to hope things go well enough to occasionally compete for a spot in the 12 team playoff. That would take good coaching, recruiting, and NIL/transfer support, but we are talking about a league where Louisville and SMU are on the verge of being regular playoff contenders. Not scary.

Baseball Recent Baseball Guys in Pro Ball

THE GOOD
Quinn Mathews -
Has been promoted 2X this season and finds himself in AA. Has a 2.03 ERA in 80 INN of pro ball but the kicker is the 113 K's. Threw 6+ innings in TEN consecutive starts. Going to be knocking on the doorsteps of Busch Stadium pretty soon. The 156-pitch controversy of a year ago is long gone. There is no rhyme or reason to Tommy John.
Drew Dowd - TB has turned him into a full time SP. The peripherals aren't great but he is holding is own with a 3.33 in 12 starts at Low A.
Alex Williams - 5.50 ERA in 140 career IP - but K rate is pretty high resulting in a recent promotion to AA

THE BAD
Tommy Troy
- After a successful summer in '23, Troy is currently really struggling in High A - .152/.222/.227
Eddie Park - 140 AB's in High A currently .257/.327/.286 - has yet to hit a HR in 290 career pro AB's
Brock Jones - Currently .207/.306/.420 in High A which is an almost identical slash line to his '23 season at the same place. Decent power and good speed (16 SB) but 230 K's in 580 professional AB's(40%) has kept him from being promoted.
Kody Huff - .202/.289/.303 in 200 AA AB's this season
Carter Graham - Has not been able to hit the ball in the air enough so far (5HR) .225/.315/.355 in 225 career AB's - almost all of those from Low A but recently promoted to High A

THE UGLY
Adam Crampton -
Has not played in 2024 due to injury. In 440 career AB's he is .200/.287/.257 -- 1 HR 124 K's(28%)
Drew Bowser - Currently in Low A where he is having trouble putting the ball in play as almost 50% of his AB's result in a K (58 of 120) .175/.310/.283
Albert Rios - Currently on 60-day IL (hamate bone) .170/.260/.280 in 180 pro AB's
Joey Dixon - Threw 1 inn last summer in rookie ball and then had surgery that will cost him all of '24
Ryan Bruno - Has not thrown a professional pitch. Had surgery after the draft. Might see game action late this season.

OT-Giants

Was never a big Kapler guy becaiuse I found him too beholden to analytics and the just-under-the-surface-disposition that reeked of "I am the smartest guy in the room."
One of the things that drove me nuts - aside from platooning irrespective of whether a player was hot or not - was the "bring a pitcher in for his one-inning role." I was hoping the new regime would be better on that front.

Nope.

Someone, for the love of god, tell me why you don't keep your closer in for the 10th inning, in a 0-0 game, especially when he breezes through the ninth? I mean, I've never understood one inning limits for the late inning guys. In any game, under any scenario. If that pitcher breezed through his inning in 10 pitches, let him go back out there. WTF?!? Hell, the Braves kept their ace closer in for the 10th and prevented the Giants from getting the courtesy runner home. That kind of managerial myopia or knee-jerkism (or whatever you want to call it) is just idiotic.

As with college football, the manager/coaches should let their eyes inform their decisions.

One other thing: the Giants absolutely SUCK at getting runners home when on 2B with 0 outs; or on 3B with fewer than 2 outs. Absolutely suck.
That is also disgusting. Today in first inning, the Giants had runners on 1B and 3B with 0 outs. Did they score? Of course not: K, K, ground out.

I wanna believe this team can make the playoffs, but with the way they utterly gag in the above categories, it's hard to see them making a WC position.

Mini-rant over.

Football Formal Football Practices (with coaching leadership/instruction) start

Next Tuesday, July 30 per Coach Taylor at last night's Buck-Cardinal reception at the Stadium upper tier north endzone lawn beneath the Collonade.
He also noted that , yes, we will have an 'open practice' for one practice day, (TBD with Matt Doyle to set up/announce). As a former railbird, happy for any such crumbs that fall our way. Just wish there were more.

One Less ACC Swim Team to Compete Against


Notre Dame suspends swim team.

“The external review confirmed and expanded on our initial concerns about a deeply embedded team culture dismissive of Notre Dame’s standards for student-athletes, including our expectation that they treat one another with dignity and respect,” Bevacqua said in a statement. “This independent, external review also documented numerous violations of NCAA rules prohibiting gambling on intercollegiate swimming and other athletic competitions despite clear and recurrent training provided to all our student-athletes by our Athletics Compliance staff about those rules. These findings are contrary to the University’s values and all that we stand for in Notre Dame Athletics.”
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Basketball ACC Hoops preview - Athletic

This is probably behind a paywall, but for those with a subscription, The Athletic has an ACC Hoops preview out today.
ACC

Stanford is 17 out of 18. Fla St. is last. Its not super in depth, but the short story is no one other than Raynaud has played a lot of minutes nor has made a lot of shots. As a result, the Athletic calls it a rebuild.

As an addition - just read that Stanford will play Oregon in San Jose on December 21 as part of a doubleheader with Cal vs. San Diego St.
game at SAP

Football Recruiting Fact or Fiction: Stanford commit JonAnthony Hall should be a Rivals250 prospect

Read that here. Courtesy of Adam Friedman and Greg Smith. While Hall has more work to do to become a Rivals250 prospect, it does sound like a fourth star should be coming.


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Olympics results

The Stanford men didn't show much in men's gymnastics. The team qualified for the men's team finals. The 2 Michigan gymnasts qualified for the all-around finals (24 qualified). The Penn State guy is the only possible medal contender after qualifying first in the pommel. Asher's top finish was 9th in the vault - the top 8 get into the finals on the individual apparatus finals. He was 10th on rings.

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Football Recruiting Recruiting Rumor Mill: August is heating up

Read that here. Courtesy of Adam Gorney. He discusses Notre Dame going after Bear Bachmeier now that Deuce Knight is likely to flip. Bachmeier is saying he's still locked in with Stanford and as I've said before, I'd be very surprised if he does't come to Stanford. His brother Tiger is one reason and then also, the family just seems to really like Troy Taylor and the culture he is building. Stanford still needs to be aware of Notre Dame's pursuit and I'm sure they are.


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